External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Alibaba Group (BABA) is currently priced at $120 per ADS, with a projected valuation of $300 per ADS by 2028, indicating a potential upside of 2.5 times.</li><li>The company's future valuation is expected to depend on its key segments: Taobao and Tmall Group in the China e-commerce market and Alicloud, which are currently undervalued.</li><li>BABA's low forward multiple of 11-12 times next year's earnings, along with revenue growth from Alicloud and potential stock buybacks, suggests downside protection for investors.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Alibaba Group (BABA) is currently priced at $120 per ADS, with a projected valuation of $300 per ADS by 2028, indicating a potential upside of 2.5 times.The company's future valuation is expected to depend on its key segments: Taobao and Tmall Group in the China e-commerce market and Alicloud, which are currently undervalued.BABA's low forward multiple of 11-12 times next year's earnings, along with revenue growth from Alicloud and potential stock buybacks, suggests downside protection for investors.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Alibaba Group Hldg (BABA) - Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Stat-arb models flag <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> as overvalued versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.</li>
<li>
Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.</li>
</ul>



Context: Stat-arb models flag Alibaba (9988 HK) as overvalued versus the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.

Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.

Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.


Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI Index</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.

Highlights: Recent market turbulence moderately lifted implied volatility for many stocks, but not to extreme levels. The approaching earnings season impacts October and November implied volatility.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Baba’s recent surge mirrors past rallies, with recent sideways price action raising a caution flag.</li>
<li>Metrics from the options market suggest that sentiment that was overheated has begun to turn.</li>
<li>We explore an alternative hedge that will not cap a continued rally but is less expensive than directly buying Puts in Baba.</li>
</ul>


Baba’s recent surge mirrors past rallies, with recent sideways price action raising a caution flag.
Metrics from the options market suggest that sentiment that was overheated has begun to turn.
We explore an alternative hedge that will not cap a continued rally but is less expensive than directly buying Puts in Baba.


Alibaba (9988.HK): Overheated Momentum and Shifting Sentiment – Constructing a Smarter Hedge

<ul>
<li>
Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.</li>
<li>This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Hong Kong market closed, but several Hong Kong–listed companies were caught up in the rout through their U.S.-listed ADRs.
This Insight details the impact on 15 prominent Hang Seng Index constituents — including Alibaba, Tencent, and HSBC. Implied volatility in U.S.-traded options on these ADRs moved sharply in response.

Why Read: Understand what to expect when the Hong Kong market reopens after the weekend — both in terms of price performance and implied volatility.


Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Alibaba Group Hldg (BABA) - Wednesday, Jul 30, 2025

Alibaba Group (BABA) is undervalued at $120 per ADS, with a projected $300 by 2028, driven by Taobao, Tmall, and Alicloud, offering strong upside...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

Alibaba IV is still about twice HSI IV, keeping the opportunity open for an asymmetrical relative value trade. Traders bearish on the HSI or...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich

Hong Kong volatility surged after U.S. tariff threats, with options pricing highlighting Meituan’s historically low implied volatility and elevated...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988.HK): Overheated Momentum and Shifting Sentiment – Constructing a Smarter Hedge

As sentiment cools after a sharp Baba rally, we outline a hedge approach that differs from direct Puts while preserving flexibility.

John Ley

Alibaba Drops 8%: What Friday’s U.S. Sell-Off Means for Hong Kong Stocks

Friday’s sell-off hit China ADRs and pushed implied volatility higher, but not all stocks were affected equally. This Insight details the price...

Gaudenz Schneider

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