HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to IPO policy adjustment on SSE STAR Market, investment/financing for innovative drugs should continue to deteriorate.But the positive side is the innovative drug industry is emerging from the bottom.</li>
<li>For the three hot fields in pharmaceutical industry (BsAb, ADC, CGT), we analyze their position and pecking order, which should be ADC &gt; BsAb &gt; CGT at the current stage.</li>
<li>To better understand the investment logic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Pharmaceutical</a>, it is necessary to fully understand the ecosystem/operational model of Fosun Group. Fosun Pharma's role is just a "chess piece".</li>
</ul>


Due to IPO policy adjustment on SSE STAR Market, investment/financing for innovative drugs should continue to deteriorate.But the positive side is the innovative drug industry is emerging from the bottom.
For the three hot fields in pharmaceutical industry (BsAb, ADC, CGT), we analyze their position and pecking order, which should be ADC &gt; BsAb &gt; CGT at the current stage.
To better understand the investment logic of Fosun Pharmaceutical, it is necessary to fully understand the ecosystem/operational model of Fosun Group. Fosun Pharma's role is just a "chess piece".


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).</li>
<li>The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   </li>
</ul>



Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).
The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   


HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.0% as of Apr 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, materials and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.0% as of Apr 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.9% as of Apr 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China, Joinn Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.9% as of Apr 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, real estate.
We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China, Joinn Lab.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

China

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

IPO policy change will worsen financing environment, putting PEVC in difficult position.For pharmaceutical hot field, the pecking order is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

IPO policy change will worsen financing environment, putting PEVC in difficult position.For pharmaceutical hot field, the pecking order is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

There is scrip valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, the deal should get...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM