Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Macroeconomics

Have you read economics papers from the 1950s or material Alan Greenspan wrote in his early days? Certainly nothing to write home about. But then again, have we thought about the status and impact of economic series that have been coming out over the last 10-20 years. The headline tools haven’t changed much have they?Of course this is why hedge funds and more creative types have been hunting for new data series for awhile, as seen in pieces such as this <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/28/making-millions-from-the-data-hidden-in-plain-sight.html" target="_blank">one</a>  Hey: it turns out some bulk shipping…

Have you read economics papers from the 1950s or material Alan Greenspan wrote in his early days? Certainly nothing to write home about. But then again, have we thought about the status and impact of economic series that have been coming out over the last 10-20 years. The headline tools haven’t changed much have they?Of course this is why hedge funds and more creative types have been hunting for new data series for awhile, as seen in pieces such as this one  Hey: it turns out some bulk shipping…

Fund Manager Meeting Notes: Economists Back to Drawing Board

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city.</li><li>Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that an old town can be rejuvenated into a robust "experiential consumption" story.</li><li>Meeting take-away indicates that the U.S. gaming companies are more bullish on international markets.</li><li>Macau is the clear front-runner in following Las Vegas's footsteps in the latter's evolution into a family entertainment center (prolonging the growth story).</li></ul>

Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city.Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that an old town can be rejuvenated into a robust "experiential consumption" story.Meeting take-away indicates that the U.S. gaming companies are more bullish on international markets.Macau is the clear front-runner in following Las Vegas's footsteps in the latter's evolution into a family entertainment center (prolonging the growth story).

Field Trip Series: Viva Vegas (Including Implications for Macau Gaming)

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the focus turns to next year’s mid-term elections.A bipartisan effort to rein in healthcare costs (including medications) and hence surging insurance premiums is now feasible - the recent rally in US biotech would be cut short in that scenario.Although US data like retail sales remains soft, the removal of healthcare uncertainty should prove bullish over the…

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the focus turns to next year’s mid-term elections.A bipartisan effort to rein in healthcare costs (including medications) and hence surging insurance premiums is now feasible - the recent rally in US biotech would be cut short in that scenario.Although US data like retail sales remains soft, the removal of healthcare uncertainty should prove bullish over the…

Republican Healthcare Plan Implodes, as Quant Investing Boom Fails to Deliver...

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to gamble in overseas casinos. Our contacts in the industry have already seen immediate termination of marketing efforts in mainland China by Macau casinos, which imply lower near-term gaming revenue in our view. A loss of higher-margin direct VIP business could also mean lower overall VIP margin for the Macau casinos, as junket VIP margins are one to two percentage points lower compared with direct VIP margins. Near-term sentiment will be unfavorable for the Macau gaming stocks. However, we gauge that marketing activities in mainland China will resurface as the dust settles, though casinos will take a lower-profile approach.To reflect the short-term impact, if we reduced 2016 full-year VIP, mass and slot revenue by 7.5% for our Macau gaming coverage, there would still be no impact on fair value estimates. Therefore, we maintain our long-term forecast and long-term-based, DCF-generated fair value estimates. Our narrow moat ratings also remain unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to gamble in overseas casinos. Our contacts in the industry have already seen immediate termination of marketing efforts in mainland China by Macau casinos, which imply lower near-term gaming revenue in our view. A loss of higher-margin direct VIP business could also mean lower overall VIP margin for the Macau casinos, as junket VIP margins are one to two percentage points lower compared with direct VIP margins. Near-term sentiment will be unfavorable for the Macau gaming stocks. However, we gauge that marketing activities in mainland China will resurface as the dust settles, though casinos will take a lower-profile approach.To reflect the short-term impact, if we reduced 2016 full-year VIP, mass and slot revenue by 7.5% for our Macau gaming coverage, there would still be no impact on fair value estimates. Therefore, we maintain our long-term forecast and long-term-based, DCF-generated fair value estimates. Our narrow moat ratings also remain unchanged.Analyst: Chelsey Tam

Negative Near-Term Read-Throughs from the Detainment of Crown Resorts' Marketing Executives in China

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Investors see value in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.</li>
<li>It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s divergence with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?</li>
</ul>


Investors see value in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.
It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn CKH (1 HK)'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.

Melco International Development (200 HK)'s divergence with Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?


Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

Hong Kong

Melco International Development is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the leisure and entertainment sector. It develops, owns, and operates an international network of integrated casino gaming and entertainment resorts, offering gaming, luxury accommodation, dining, entertainment, and retail. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Melco International Development (200 HK)

Fund Manager Meeting Notes: Economists Back to Drawing Board

Have you read economics papers from the 1950s or material Alan Greenspan wrote in his early days? Certainly nothing to write home about. But then...

Charles De Trenck

Field Trip Series: Viva Vegas (Including Implications for Macau Gaming)

Our field trip to Las Vegas suggests a vibrant, lively entertainment city. Downtown Las Vegas, not the Strip, is the key positive surprise in that...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Republican Healthcare Plan Implodes, as Quant Investing Boom Fails to Deliver...

The shambolic Republican healthcare reform effort is now dead – a vote to simply repeal Obamacare without any replacement looks unlikely as the...

Sean Maher

Negative Near-Term Read-Throughs from the Detainment of Crown Resorts' Marketing Executives in China

Eighteen sales and marketing executives at Crown Resorts were reported as being detained in China, likely due to illegally soliciting Chinese to...

Morningstar, Inc.

Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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