Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 66% to 93%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.</li>
<li>The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.22, compared with a benchmark of 0.56 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.</li>
<li>The portfolio gained in the healthcare and energy sectors in August, while exposure to materials and communication services dragged on performance.</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 66% to 93%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.22, compared with a benchmark of 0.56 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
The portfolio gained in the healthcare and energy sectors in August, while exposure to materials and communication services dragged on performance.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in August will be announced pre-market open Thursday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 August.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 1, 2 and 3 months but near-term performance has been far from awesome due to the momentum unwind.


Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard (148 HK)</a> is looking to sell 155m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-laminates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10276:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK)</a> at a price range of HK$75.6-77.7/share, a discount of 9.5-12% to the last close.</li>
<li>At the current placement size, there could be passive buying from trackers of one global index. A small increase in the placement size could result in more passive buying.</li>
<li>Short interest has soared in the stock, and some shorts will be looking to stem the bleeding by subscribing to the placement.</li>
</ul>



Kingboard (148 HK) is looking to sell 155m shares of Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK) at a price range of HK$75.6-77.7/share, a discount of 9.5-12% to the last close.
At the current placement size, there could be passive buying from trackers of one global index. A small increase in the placement size could result in more passive buying.
Short interest has soared in the stock, and some shorts will be looking to stem the bleeding by subscribing to the placement.


Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK): Placement Will Bail Out Shorts; Index Implications

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-laminates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10276:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK)</a>'s relative outperformance versus its parent peaked at the May 29 global index inclusion and has since retraced 40% of the divergence built up since March.</li>
<li>The second block placement of 155 million shares at HK$76.00, combined with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingboard-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8122:1" rel="noopener">Kingboard (148 HK)</a> probable August index inclusion, structurally favors continued convergence of the parent-subsidiary spread.</li>
<li>
We apply our proprietary pattern analysis on the two stocks relative performance series: previous historical analogues suggest the current relative 'outperformance rebound' may stall soon and the convergence trend resume.</li>
</ul>



Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK)'s relative outperformance versus its parent peaked at the May 29 global index inclusion and has since retraced 40% of the divergence built up since March.
The second block placement of 155 million shares at HK$76.00, combined with Kingboard (148 HK) probable August index inclusion, structurally favors continued convergence of the parent-subsidiary spread.

We apply our proprietary pattern analysis on the two stocks relative performance series: previous historical analogues suggest the current relative 'outperformance rebound' may stall soon and the convergence trend resume.


Kingboard (1888 HK) Vs Kingboard (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: The Subsidiary Premium Is Unwinding

Hong Kong

Kingboard is an investment holding company that manufactures and sells laminates, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and chemicals. It is a leading vertically integrated electronic materials manufacturer, producing copper-clad laminates and key upstream raw materials like copper foil, glass fabric, and resins. The company also has segments in properties and investments. Kingboard was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Kingboard (148 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by...

David Mudd

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK): Placement Will Bail Out Shorts; Index Implications

Kingboard Holdings has outperformed Kingboard Laminates by 35% over the last 3 trading sessions. Kingboard Holdings is a potential inclusion in a...

Brian Freitas

Kingboard (1888 HK) Vs Kingboard (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: The Subsidiary Premium Is Unwinding

Kingboard 1888HK vs Kingboard 148HK: the subsidiary premium peaked at index inclusion — our divergence model says the parent has more room to catch...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2026)

HK Alpha portfolio gained 2.22% in September, outperforming its benchmark by 5.36%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by...

David Mudd

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Index: Potential Changes in August for Asia Pac

The global index changes were announced using D1 as the cutoff. 99% hit rate across Asia Pacific, so no surprises. Big price changes in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK): Placement Will Bail Out Shorts; Index Implications

Kingboard Holdings has outperformed Kingboard Laminates by 35% over the last 3 trading sessions. Kingboard Holdings is a potential inclusion in a...

Brian Freitas

Kingboard (1888 HK) Vs Kingboard (148 HK) Tactical Outlook: The Subsidiary Premium Is Unwinding

Kingboard 1888HK vs Kingboard 148HK: the subsidiary premium peaked at index inclusion — our divergence model says the parent has more room to catch...

Nico Rosti

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...