Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May and June, domestic and outbound Chinese travel demand both softened</li>
<li>Given higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment, this shouldn't be a surprise</li>
<li>For Trip.com, we believe tepid Chinese demand could delay recovery in momentum</li>
</ul>


In May and June, domestic and outbound Chinese travel demand both softened
Given higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment, this shouldn't be a surprise
For Trip.com, we believe tepid Chinese demand could delay recovery in momentum


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | May, June, Q2 All Show A Clear Softening of Chinese Travel Demand

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On 3 March, the South Korean romance drama "Something in the Rain" was streamed on a Chinese online platform iQiyi. </li>
<li>This was the first time in five years that a Korean TV show has been approved by the Chinese government to be formally allowed to be shown in China.</li>
<li>In addition, there has been numerous media news flow in the past week regarding China pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy.</li>
</ul>


On 3 March, the South Korean romance drama "Something in the Rain" was streamed on a Chinese online platform iQiyi. 
This was the first time in five years that a Korean TV show has been approved by the Chinese government to be formally allowed to be shown in China.
In addition, there has been numerous media news flow in the past week regarding China pivoting away from its zero-COVID policy.


China Pivots from Zero-COVID Policy & End of China's Ban on Korean Culture?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) </a>issued profit warnings for FY21, guiding for Rmb36.8-43.3bn aggregate losses, worse than FY20. </li>
<li>On QoQ basis, CSA's bottom line is significantly weaker as losses enlarged 3.1x in 4Q21, versus 38.4% for CEA and 54% for Air China, based on the mid-point of guidances.</li>
<li>We expect Air China to outperform CSA (YTD: 1.6pp), backed by more international traffic, border opening of China, favourable cargo demand and pricing, and improvement at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Air China Ltd (753 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) issued profit warnings for FY21, guiding for Rmb36.8-43.3bn aggregate losses, worse than FY20. 
On QoQ basis, CSA's bottom line is significantly weaker as losses enlarged 3.1x in 4Q21, versus 38.4% for CEA and 54% for Air China, based on the mid-point of guidances.
We expect Air China to outperform CSA (YTD: 1.6pp), backed by more international traffic, border opening of China, favourable cargo demand and pricing, and improvement at Cathay Pacific (293 HK). 


Chinese Airlines: A Tale of Three Loss-Making, but Outperforming, Companies

<ul>
<li>State Council's announcement of China 14th 5-year Tourism Industry Development Plan recently should see positive policies and supportive measures to be rolled out over the medium term. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haichang-ocean-park-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11396:1" rel="noopener">Haichang Ocean Park (2255 HK)</a> are some key beneficiaries.</li>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> will benefit from the recovery of international air passenger as the Plan highlights the importance of promoting inbound/outbound tourism after the pandemic.</li>
</ul>


State Council's announcement of China 14th 5-year Tourism Industry Development Plan recently should see positive policies and supportive measures to be rolled out over the medium term. 

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH), China Travel International Investment (308 HK) and Haichang Ocean Park (2255 HK) are some key beneficiaries.
We believe Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) will benefit from the recovery of international air passenger as the Plan highlights the importance of promoting inbound/outbound tourism after the pandemic.


Beneficiaries of China's 14th 5-Year Tourism Industry Development Plan

Chinese airlines are expected to face sustained turbulence given the adverse impact of scattered outbreak of local COVID-19 cases, with the most recent ones being Fujian. We see risks for this round of spread to negatively affect the cross-province travel appetite during the mid-Autumn mini-break and potentially the all-important National Day Golden Week in Oct. With poor Aug traffic figures out (over 50% YoY drop in domestic passenger traffic for both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>), Sep is also unlikely to be an easy month.We expect 3Q21 results to be under pressure, and we maintain that a long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> trade can position well amid the current environment. We see too much positive expectations have been built in CSA; meanwhile, Air China will have an easier base for comparison in 4Q21 and the reduction in losses at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> will continue to help its bottom line in 2H21.

Chinese airlines are expected to face sustained turbulence given the adverse impact of scattered outbreak of local COVID-19 cases, with the most recent ones being Fujian. We see risks for this round of spread to negatively affect the cross-province travel appetite during the mid-Autumn mini-break and potentially the all-important National Day Golden Week in Oct. With poor Aug traffic figures out (over 50% YoY drop in domestic passenger traffic for both China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)), Sep is also unlikely to be an easy month.We expect 3Q21 results to be under pressure, and we maintain that a long Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK), short China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) trade can position well amid the current environment. We see too much positive expectations have been built in CSA; meanwhile, Air China will have an easier base for comparison in 4Q21 and the reduction in losses at Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will continue to help its bottom line in 2H21.

Chinese Airlines: Cruising Within Sustained Turbulence

China

Air China is the flag carrier airline of the People's Republic of China, primarily providing air passenger and air cargo services, including both domestic and international flights. The company also offers a range of airline-related services such as aircraft engineering and airport ground handling. It was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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Air China (753 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | May, June, Q2 All Show A Clear Softening of Chinese Travel Demand

Data from May, June, and Q226 show a softening in Chinese air travel demand, for both domestic and outbound travel. Tepid demand will make a quick...

Tracking Traffic

China Pivots from Zero-COVID Policy & End of China's Ban on Korean Culture?

On 3 March, the South Korean romance drama "Something in the Rain" was streamed on a Chinese online platform iQiyi. In addition, China appears to...

Douglas Kim

Chinese Airlines: A Tale of Three Loss-Making, but Outperforming, Companies

Chinese airlines have issued profit warnings for FY21 with record losses in the year, and CSA looks to have the weakest QoQ performance in 4Q21. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Beneficiaries of China's 14th 5-Year Tourism Industry Development Plan

China's 14th 5-year Tourism Development Plan are positive to many players in the tourism industry. We expect more favourable policies and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese Airlines: Cruising Within Sustained Turbulence

After a devastating Aug, Sep will still be clouded by recent cases in Fujian. We think Long Air China, short CSA strategy should capture CSA's...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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