Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

<ul>
<li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger</li>
<li>AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 </li>
<li>AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus </li>
</ul>


In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger
AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 
AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus 


<ul><li>Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?</li><li>A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions.</li><li> While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.</li></ul>

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst?A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the investment case for AkzoNobel just weeks before shareholders vote on one of the sector's most consequential transactions. While market attention remains focused on the proposed combination with Axalta, recent developments raise broader questions around value realisation, capital allocation and the board's strategic flexibility.

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nippon's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints at 10.8x NTM EBITDA, providing an external benchmark that highlights the relatively low valuation currently implied for Akzo's remaining coatings businesses</li>
<li>Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests the market attributes most of Akzo's conglomerate discount to Performance Coatings, not Decorative Paints, despite the former driving the Axalta synergy opportunity.</li>
<li>The proposal appears more likely to reinforce the strategic case for completing the Axalta merger before reviewing portfolio options than to disrupt the transaction itself.</li>
</ul>


Nippon's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints at 10.8x NTM EBITDA, providing an external benchmark that highlights the relatively low valuation currently implied for Akzo's remaining coatings businesses
Our sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests the market attributes most of Akzo's conglomerate discount to Performance Coatings, not Decorative Paints, despite the former driving the Axalta synergy opportunity.
The proposal appears more likely to reinforce the strategic case for completing the Axalta merger before reviewing portfolio options than to disrupt the transaction itself.


Nippon Paint's €7.5bn Proposal Reprices the Akzo–Axalta Merger

United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM...

The IDEA!

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26...

The IDEA!

AkzoNobel Nippon Paint’s proposed offer just added a fresh coat of value

Summary & Conclusions Is the Market Missing a Hidden Catalyst? A renewed strategic proposal has introduced an unexpected dimension to the...

The IDEA!

Nippon Paint's €7.5bn Proposal Reprices the Akzo–Axalta Merger

Nippon Paint's €7.5bn proposal values Decorative Paints but also revalues the Akzo–Axalta merger, revealing where the market's valuation discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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