Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec</li>
<li>Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line</li>
<li>Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu</li>
</ul>


Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec
Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line
Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypay-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35269:1" rel="noopener">PayPay (PAYP US)</a> (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its shareholders is set to expire soon.
PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: PayPay Lockup Expiry - US$10.5bn Lockup Release

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion</li>
<li>We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group</li>
<li>We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia


Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Aequitas: PayPay Lockup Expiry - US$10.5bn Lockup Release

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

​Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Aequitas: PayPay Lockup Expiry - US$10.5bn Lockup Release

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

​Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...