Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$0.7 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lintec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5564:1" rel="noopener">Lintec Corp (7966 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 3.7% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,730 per share (20 August).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Lintec's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 1 September. Since 2021, the average large Japanese placement has tended to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$0.7 billion secondary offering, Lintec Corp (7966 JP)’s shares have declined 3.7% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,730 per share (20 August).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Lintec's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 1 September. Since 2021, the average large Japanese placement has tended to generate positive returns.


<ul>
<li>There is no easy way to gather duration data of securities held by Japan's regional banks</li>
<li>In IR material of the largest 8 regional banks, Resona and Chiba stand out, at opposite ends</li>
<li>On blunt equity/assets SBI Sumishin Net Bank stands out at only 1.5%</li>
</ul>


There is no easy way to gather duration data of securities held by Japan's regional banks
In IR material of the largest 8 regional banks, Resona and Chiba stand out, at opposite ends
On blunt equity/assets SBI Sumishin Net Bank stands out at only 1.5%


Resona & Chiba - Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief

<ul>
<li>What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low</li>
<li>Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.</li>
<li>Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23</li>
</ul>


What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low
Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.
Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23


Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lintec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5564:1" rel="noopener">Lintec Corp (7966 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 17.1 million shares (19.7 million including overallotment), valued at around US$0.6 billion (US$0.7 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>The offering will enable <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder, to sell all its directly owned shares.</li>
<li>The offering, as a percentage of outstanding shares, is the sixth-highest, and, in terms of ADV, the fifth-highest among large Japanese placements since 2021.</li>
</ul>



Lintec Corp (7966 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 17.1 million shares (19.7 million including overallotment), valued at around US$0.6 billion (US$0.7 billion including overallotment).
The offering will enable Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP), the largest shareholder, to sell all its directly owned shares.
The offering, as a percentage of outstanding shares, is the sixth-highest, and, in terms of ADV, the fifth-highest among large Japanese placements since 2021.


Lintec (7966 JP): A US$0.7 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

Lintec (7966 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 1 September. Since 2021, the average large Japanese placement has tended to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Resona & Chiba - Duration Longest at Resona, Shortest at Chiba, Implications for YCC Relief

With rising yields on 10 year JGBs and on 1 year JGBs it is worth re-visting the stand outs in duration, Resona and Chiba.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Japan's banks are seeing accelerating domestic credit growth, better than Singapore now. JGB yields remain higher than in the past, credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Lintec (7966 JP): A US$0.7 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering, as a percentage of outstanding shares, is the sixth-highest, and, in terms of ADV, the fifth-highest among large Japanese placements...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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