Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With many cash grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, boasting an upstream supply is not a bad thing. Yet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam (OLAM SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> would be a screaming buy vs its basket a bit lower. As it is, it's the same level after the bank changed its payout ratio. </li>
<li>The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has lobbed a higher offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> and AGL has rejected it.</li>
</ul>


With many cash grain/agri prices touching record highs amid war in Ukraine, boasting an upstream supply is not a bad thing. Yet Olam (OLAM SP) is a tricky beast to analyze.

Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) would be a screaming buy vs its basket a bit lower. As it is, it's the same level after the bank changed its payout ratio. 
The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has lobbed a higher offer for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) and AGL has rejected it.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Olam, Bank of Kyoto, AGL Energy, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan Post Insurance beat consensus 3Q estimates by 77% at the NP level and the company revised up FY guidance 30.5% to ¥365.49 in EPS. </li>
<li>Consensus still forecasts EPS to drop to ¥234 next FY but we see little reason to not expect a further increase. </li>
<li>If so, the name is likely to be close to 5x PE vs. peers at over 10x creating a significant opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Japan Post Insurance beat consensus 3Q estimates by 77% at the NP level and the company revised up FY guidance 30.5% to ¥365.49 in EPS. 
Consensus still forecasts EPS to drop to ¥234 next FY but we see little reason to not expect a further increase. 
If so, the name is likely to be close to 5x PE vs. peers at over 10x creating a significant opportunity.


Japan Post Insurance – Why This Could Double… In Charts

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Paint Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders of Nippon Paint Holdings, plan to raise around US$1.4bn via selling nearly 6% of the stock.</li>
<li>The shares haven’t done much this year and despite having corrected by around 40% since the start of 2021, they are trading just about inline with analyst average target price.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders of Nippon Paint Holdings, plan to raise around US$1.4bn via selling nearly 6% of the stock.
The shares haven’t done much this year and despite having corrected by around 40% since the start of 2021, they are trading just about inline with analyst average target price.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Nippon Paint Holdings Placement - Nothing Particularly Exciting, Needs to Correct

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. </li>
<li>This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.</li>
<li>NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.</li>
</ul>


NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. 
This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.
NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.


Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

Japan

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Olam, Bank of Kyoto, AGL Energy, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Insurance – Why This Could Double… In Charts

Japan Post Insurance's defensive nature and a slow recovery in new premiums written could have investors looking at the stock, and they would find...

Mio Kato

Nippon Paint Holdings Placement - Nothing Particularly Exciting, Needs to Correct

A group of shareholders of Nippon Paint Holdings, plan to raise around US$1.4bn via selling nearly 6% of the stock. In this note, we will talk...

Sumeet Singh

Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

NTT cancelled shares in November. That leads to a TOPIX event selldown at end-December. For NTT it is US$1bn. But NTT remains undeservedly cheap to...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)