Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful</li>
<li>Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples</li>
</ul>


In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples


Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. </li>
<li>Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. </li>
<li>Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. </li>
</ul>


Bitcoin could find the bottom and strongly rebounded in 1Q23. We believe BTC mining companies could be sellers of crypto assets on strong bounce and limit room for further upside. 
Our bear case scenario assumes an average BTC price of $25K in 2023 with an opportunity to reach as high as $30K. Leading crypto miners began to offload Bitcoin holdings. 
Investors should be more selective on the crypto miner names during a prolonged bear market. Our top picks include Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain, and Cipher Mining. 


Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

<ul>
<li>Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions</li>
<li>For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation</li>
</ul>


Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions
For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list
Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation


Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.</li>
<li>Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.</li>
<li>Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.</li>
</ul>


We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.
Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.
Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.


House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.</li><li>The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.</li><li>On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?</li></ul>

The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?

United States

Visa Inc. operates a retail electronic payments network and manages global financial services.  The Company also offers global commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses and government entities.

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Visa (V US)

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Strong Start In 2023. Bitcoin Is Up ~40% YTD

We believe the crypto contagion is finally over, and a rally in Bitcoin may restore investor confidence after 12 months of a bear market

Andrei Zakharov

Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; for shorts, we remain negative on...

Victor Galliano

Global Equity: Consensus Positioning

We screen 359 Global Equity funds to find the consensus overweights and underweights across regions, countries, sectors, industries and stocks.

Steven Holden

Charts to Watch #7

The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline. On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index...

Market Radar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)