Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kurita-water-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3870:1" rel="noopener">Kurita Water Industries</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1223:1" rel="noopener">Keio Corp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators</a> have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> over the recent past.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent, Lixil Group, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, Welcia Holdings, Persol Holdings, Kurita Water Industries, GMO Payment Gateway, Keio Corp and NGK Insulators have underperformed the Nikkei225 over the recent past.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

Index Rebalance

Kurita Water Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kurita-water-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3870:1" rel="noopener">Kurita Water Industries</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/open-house-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1" rel="noopener">Open House</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> over the recent past.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent, Lixil Group, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, Welcia Holdings, Persol Holdings, GMO Payment Gateway, Kurita Water Industries and Open House have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 over the recent past.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has increased on some stocks and there could be more pre-positioning to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.</li>
<li>The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. </li>
<li>Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.
The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. 
Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.


Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Japan-Based advertising/marketing services company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> launched a Tender Offer to acquire all the shares in small-cap digital marketing company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soldout-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35570:1" rel="noopener">SoldOut (6553 JP)</a> on 9th February 2022.</li>
<li>The TOB Price is ¥1,809 per share in cash which translates to an implied market capitalization of ¥19.5bn (~US$170mn) for the Target company - a 101% premium to previous close.</li>
<li>The Tender Offer has a minimum acceptance condition and is expected to be completed in March 2022. Below is a closer look at the Deal Details.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based advertising/marketing services company Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) launched a Tender Offer to acquire all the shares in small-cap digital marketing company SoldOut (6553 JP) on 9th February 2022.
The TOB Price is ¥1,809 per share in cash which translates to an implied market capitalization of ¥19.5bn (~US$170mn) for the Target company - a 101% premium to previous close.
The Tender Offer has a minimum acceptance condition and is expected to be completed in March 2022. Below is a closer look at the Deal Details.


High Premium Hakuhodo DY TOB for SoldOut (6553 JP) - Could Be a Catalyst for Digital Holding (2389)

Japan

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

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Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

There are a few stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting* Stocks

There are a few stocks in Japan that have underperformed the NKY over the last few months and that could lead to a liquidity event due to the...

Brian Freitas

Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Dentsu (4324) announced earnings and a large buyback. That buyback is larger than it appears, but actually smaller, but then larger again, but it...

Travis Lundy

High Premium Hakuhodo DY TOB for SoldOut (6553 JP) - Could Be a Catalyst for Digital Holding (2389)

Hakuhodo launched a ~US170mn Tender Offer to acquire SoldOut. This looks like a done deal and could be a catalyst for SoldOut's current parent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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