FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.</em></p>

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

<p>Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  </p>

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 8 March 2016</p><div><strong>Cycle inflection points</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: </p><p><strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15</a> </strong>4:14 min.</p><div>Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.</div><p>WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.</p><div>CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;</p><p>The stand out is China.</p>

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the Australian dollar has been resilient in the face of commodity headwinds, rising by around 4% against the US dollar, thanks to&nbsp;the extreme under-valuation that the A$ had reached by the end of September.&nbsp;</li><li>As a result of the recent&nbsp;lift in the A$ and continued weakness in commodity prices, the model's strong A$ buy signal has diminished, with the currency now trading only 3% below fair value.</li><li>Evidente's basket of ASX listed US dollar earners&nbsp;has yielded&nbsp;poor returns since peaking in March despite renewed depreciation of the A$/US$.&nbsp; Limited valuation support based on ROE adjusted P/B ratios suggests that the performance of the basket will continue to be capped in the near-term.&nbsp;</li></ul>

Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the Australian dollar has been resilient in the face of commodity headwinds, rising by around 4% against the US dollar, thanks to&nbsp;the extreme under-valuation that the A$ had reached by the end of September.&nbsp;As a result of the recent&nbsp;lift in the A$ and continued weakness in commodity prices, the model's strong A$ buy signal has diminished, with the currency now trading only 3% below fair value.Evidente's basket of ASX listed US dollar earners&nbsp;has yielded&nbsp;poor returns since peaking in March despite renewed depreciation of the A$/US$.&nbsp; Limited valuation support based on ROE adjusted P/B ratios suggests that the performance of the basket will continue to be capped in the near-term.&nbsp;

Buy Signal for the A$ Weakens as the Currency Remains Resilient in the Face of Commodity Headwinds

Australia

Westfield Corp is a property trust that invests in, leases and manages over retail shopping centers in Australia, New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom.  The Group's operations also include funds and asset management and property development and construction.

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Westfield Corp (WFD AU)

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the...

ClearMacro

Cycle Inflection Turns

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus...

Thomas Schroeder

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example....

Daniel Tabbush

Buy Signal for the A$ Weakens as the Currency Remains Resilient in the Face of Commodity Headwinds

Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms. ...

Sam Ferraro

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