'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>.</p><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/904/original/2020-10-28_05-35-42.png?1603830956" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167904"></figure></div><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/905/original/2020-10-28_05-36-25.png?1603831001" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167905"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>57 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: -1.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 12%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS57 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 12%
39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.1 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/132/350/original/2020-05-10_07-41-07.png?1589064097" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="132350"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>HERD IMMUNITY</strong> - The market 'herd' continues to be immune to the siren song of earnings announcements. In last week's two reporting days, aggregate trailing operating income declined by ¥400 billion, while the current year forecast was trimmed by ¥800 billion. The respective numbers for net income were ¥600 billion and ¥200 billion - the latter being flattering in its 'deception' as the figure includes three net-income 'heavy' sogo-shosha. We expect a PER 'breakout' to above 18x in the coming week.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/132/351/original/2020-05-10_08-08-43.png?1589065754" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="132351"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTERIM LEADING THE WAY</strong> - Our Results and Revisions scoring methodology tracks both Interim and Annual forecasts with the former signalling the direction of the latter. For some companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16229:1" rel="noopener">JCU (4975 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenkoku-hosho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5537:1" rel="noopener">Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP)</a>, the Interim forecast is sufficiently pessimistic as to taint the reliability of the annual forecast. Our Interim Score will reach a new ten-year low this week; the Annual Score did so last month. We do not expect the COVID-19 earnings cycle to bottom until the January/February's mostly third-quarter results announcements.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/132/366/original/2020-05-10_09-01-50.png?1589068924" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="132366"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/132/367/original/2020-05-10_09-00-50.png?1589068939" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="132367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies on Friday. The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 211 results announcements was<strong> 90:27:107</strong>. The average change in Score was <strong>-1</strong>. For the 131 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was <strong>43:4:84</strong>  and the average Score was<strong> -5</strong>. Of the<strong> 155 </strong>companies declaring full-year results, <strong>49%</strong> made interim and annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred thirty-three companies will announce on Monday, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>. Friday's 'best' and worst scoring results were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda (6366 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keihan-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6120:1" rel="noopener">Keihan Electric Railway (9045 JP)</a>, although the former is below our cap cut-off for our tables below. For more, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a>'s results update <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chiyoda-gross-margin-disappoints-but-sg-a-control-continues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39166" rel="noopener">Chiyoda – Gross Margin Disappoints but SG&amp;A Control Continues</a>. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsHERD IMMUNITY - The market 'herd' continues to be immune to the siren song of earnings announcements. In last week's two reporting days, aggregate trailing operating income declined by ¥400 billion, while the current year forecast was trimmed by ¥800 billion. The respective numbers for net income were ¥600 billion and ¥200 billion - the latter being flattering in its 'deception' as the figure includes three net-income 'heavy' sogo-shosha. We expect a PER 'breakout' to above 18x in the coming week.Source • Japan AnalyticsINTERIM LEADING THE WAY - Our Results and Revisions scoring methodology tracks both Interim and Annual forecasts with the former signalling the direction of the latter. For some companies such as Fancl (4921 JP), JCU (4975 JP) and Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP), the Interim forecast is sufficiently pessimistic as to taint the reliability of the annual forecast. Our Interim Score will reach a new ten-year low this week; the Annual Score did so last month. We do not expect the COVID-19 earnings cycle to bottom until the January/February's mostly third-quarter results announcements.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies on Friday. The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 211 results announcements was 90:27:107. The average change in Score was -1. For the 131 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 43:4:84  and the average Score was -5. Of the 155 companies declaring full-year results, 49% made interim and annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred thirty-three companies will announce on Monday, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Softbank Corp (9434 JP), Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP), and Bridgestone (5108 JP). Friday's 'best' and worst scoring results were from Chiyoda (6366 JP) and Keihan Electric Railway (9045 JP), although the former is below our cap cut-off for our tables below. For more, see Mio Kato's results update Chiyoda – Gross Margin Disappoints but SG&amp;A Control Continues. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 8th May - Lion, PPI, Hoya, Sogo Shosha, NEC

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/966/original/2020-05-08_05-43-09.png?1588884207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131966"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>7TH MAY</strong> - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/970/original/File%202020-05-07%204%2029%2028.jpeg?1588886994" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131970"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation Lab</div><p><strong>THE ROAD TO ZERO</strong> - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/971/original/2020-05-08_06-52-52.png?1588888396" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131971"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE OTHER SHOE? -</strong> The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an <strong>Insight</strong> on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/972/original/2020-05-08_06-59-20.png?1588888777" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131972"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation LabTHE ROAD TO ZERO - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE OTHER SHOE? - The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an Insight on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Hoya (7741 JP), Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), and Itochu (8001 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THREE-YEAR LOW</strong> - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our <strong>Results Sore</strong> - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> to rise above the <strong>Results Score</strong>. <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the <strong>Results Score</strong>.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The <strong>Results Score</strong> cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LEADING INDICATOR</strong> - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the<strong> Forecast/Revision Score</strong>. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are <em>lagging</em> indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. </p><p><strong>SCORING METHODOLOGY</strong> - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-</p><ul>
<li><p><strong>Results Scores</strong> are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</p></li>
<li><p>The <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</p></li>
<li><p>The combined <strong>Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS)</strong> is the average of the <strong>Results Score</strong> and the<strong> Forecasts/Revision Score</strong>.</p></li>
<li>
<p>All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into <strong>Sector</strong>, <strong>Peer Group</strong> and <strong>Market Composite</strong> Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR SCORES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The <strong>Metals</strong> Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the<strong> Information Technology</strong> Sector has replaced the <strong>Internet</strong> and <strong>Telecoms</strong> Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. </p>
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/367/original/2020-02-05_03-43-39.png?1580847984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our <strong>Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low,</strong> although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao (4452 JP)</a> although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/368/original/2020-02-05_03-47-58.png?1580848469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116368"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the <strong>Other Commerical Products</strong> Sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> helped <strong>Healthcare t</strong>ick up, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> fuelled the strong recovery in the<strong> Banks</strong> Sector.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20438:1" rel="noopener">Systena (2317 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> added to the erosion of the <strong>Information Technology</strong> Sector's lead, although partially offset by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a> 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the <strong>Wholesale</strong> Sector's Score.   </p>

Source • Japan Analytics4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Kao (4452 JP) although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Hoya (7741 JP)'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) helped Healthcare tick up, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  Systena (2317 JP) and NTT Data (9613 JP) added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP).  Mitsui (8031 JP) 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

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52-week Range

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P/E

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

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HERD IMMUNITY - The market 'herd' continues to be immune to the siren song of earnings announcements. In last week's two reporting days, aggregate...

Campbell Gunn

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7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

Campbell Gunn

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