Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US restrictions for Huawei suppliers has the potential for block exports for a variety of non-leading-edge chipmaking equipment to China. </li>
<li>ASML confirms its EUV slowdown which is negative for Hoya Corp as a leading global supplier of EUV mask blanks. Lasertec -13.4% yesterday, although it may struggle to rebound </li>
<li>PM Ishiba making an offering at the Yasukuni Shrine has the potential to rile China, although Japan's tourist arrivals in Sep hit +26% above 2019 pre-CV levels. </li>
</ul>


US restrictions for Huawei suppliers has the potential for block exports for a variety of non-leading-edge chipmaking equipment to China. 
ASML confirms its EUV slowdown which is negative for Hoya Corp as a leading global supplier of EUV mask blanks. Lasertec -13.4% yesterday, although it may struggle to rebound 
PM Ishiba making an offering at the Yasukuni Shrine has the potential to rile China, although Japan's tourist arrivals in Sep hit +26% above 2019 pre-CV levels. 


Japan Morning Connection: More Downside for SPE on ASML and Potential US Curbs for Huawei Suppliers

<ul>
<li>Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.</li>
<li>EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.</li>
<li>Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.</li>
</ul>


Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.
EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.
Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.


Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

<ul>
<li>Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec</li>
<li>Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line</li>
<li>Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu</li>
</ul>


Server related names higher after some big sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI should be a positive for Nidec
Watch for P&amp;C weakness in Japan following losses for peers overnight as Hurricane Milton intensifies as it approaches the Florida coast line
Oil back above $80 will continue to push related names higher; possible refiner pair with 4 days of TPX FFW selling for recent outperformer Idemitsu


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

<ul>
<li>Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.</li>
<li>Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.</li>
<li>News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.</li>
</ul>


Tech selloff overnight on NVDA post-earnings weakness was fairly contained, and SPE related in Japan should continue yesterdays rebound off the morning lows.
Big beat for Dell on the strong outlook for its AI servers outweighing the soft consumer PC market sending it +8% in after-market trading.
News that Tepco plans to spend $3.2bn to upgrade its electricity infrastructure to 2030 positive for wire/cable names and related names.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: More Downside for SPE on ASML and Potential US Curbs for Huawei Suppliers

US restrictions on Huawei suppliers could block exports of chipmaking equipment to China, ASML's EUV slowdown should impact sentiment for Hoya Corp

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

SPE faces pullback after ASML's poor order outlook, impacting EUV-related plays including. Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, particularly...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: More Downside for SPE on ASML and Potential US Curbs for Huawei Suppliers

​US restrictions on Huawei suppliers could block exports of chipmaking equipment to China, ASML's EUV slowdown should impact sentiment for Hoya Corp

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

SPE faces pullback after ASML's poor order outlook, impacting EUV-related plays including. Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, particularly...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Through $80 While P&C Take a Hit on Hurricane Milton

​Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Set to Rebound as Dell After-Market Print Sets Positive Tone

​Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Andrew Jackson

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

​Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US restrictions on Huawei suppliers could block exports of chipmaking equipment to China, ASML's EUV slowdown should impact sentiment for Hoya Corp

Positive sales numbers and new product launches from SMCI could benefit Nidec; P&C weakness expected due to Hurricane Milton; Oil above $80...

Tech selloff contained, Dell beats with strong outlook for AI servers, Tepco's $3.2bn upgrade plan positive for wire/cable names.

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...