Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioof-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)</a> has received an indicative proposal from Bain Capital to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer takes advantage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioof-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)</a>'s underperformance over the last couple of years and there could be competing offers from other investment managers. </li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioof-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)</a> is around 2% of shares out and 2.5% of float. There could be short covering in the next few days.</li>
</ul>



IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) has received an indicative proposal from Bain Capital to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash.
The offer takes advantage of IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)'s underperformance over the last couple of years and there could be competing offers from other investment managers. 
Short interest in IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) is around 2% of shares out and 2.5% of float. There could be short covering in the next few days.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain's Indicative Proposal a Tad Light

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioof-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)</a> shares rose 11% in the final minutes of trade, fueled by media reports suggesting that Bain was in the advanced stages of making a buyout offer.</li>
<li>The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. Takeover interest is unsurprising as Insignia trades at a material discount to peers.</li>
<li>We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67, a 37.4% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) shares rose 11% in the final minutes of trade, fueled by media reports suggesting that Bain was in the advanced stages of making a buyout offer.
The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. Takeover interest is unsurprising as Insignia trades at a material discount to peers.
We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67, a 37.4% premium to the last close.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>, Canvest.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elematec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2866:1" rel="noopener">Elematec Corp (2715 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK), Canvest.

Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Capitol Health (CAJ AU), Elematec Corp (2715 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) - HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>'s scrip merger; and cash Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec (SUN SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB (MPHB MK)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 52 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deals this week: De Grey Mining (DEG AU)'s scrip merger; and cash Offers for ESR (1821 HK), HKBN (1310 HK), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Suntec (SUN SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Latin Resources (LRS AU), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), Sg Fleet (SGF AU), Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and MPHB (MPHB MK).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2024, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~44%. The average premium YTD is ~43%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

Australia

Platinum Asset Management Limited is a fund management company. The Company specializes in global equities.

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Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain's Indicative Proposal a Tad Light

Insignia Financial has received an indicative proposal from Bain to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash. The offer takes advantage of...

Brian Freitas

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Contemplating a Privatisation Bid

We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67. This is a...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) - HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet

This week, the highest gross spreads are Lifestyle China (21.7%), Arcadium Lithium (11.4%), Henlius (11.1%), ESR (9.2%), Get Nice (8.7%), Canvest...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: De Grey Mining, HPI, SG Fleet, Malaysia Airports, MPHB, Suntec REIT

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2024: Net One System, Amcor/Berry, I D & E Holdings, SG Fleet, Macromill

For Nov 2024, 14 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$15bn. The ave. premium for these new transactions...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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