New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in market share (primarily China Label [CL] driven).</li><li>This growth is slightly below 1H25 consensus infant formula revenue expectations.</li><li>However, given data volatility, ATM’s track record of exceeding Kantar's CL growth, and recent revenue gains in other areas (primarily MVM and Nutritionals), we don't anticipate material surprises in ATM's 1H25 result. </li></ul>

Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in market share (primarily China Label [CL] driven).This growth is slightly below 1H25 consensus infant formula revenue expectations.However, given data volatility, ATM’s track record of exceeding Kantar's CL growth, and recent revenue gains in other areas (primarily MVM and Nutritionals), we don't anticipate material surprises in ATM's 1H25 result. 

The A2 Milk Company - Kantar Data—Looking for Improvement

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos, Goodman, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a>. </li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) will replace Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ). 
Importantly, A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.


S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

Australia

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company 
offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)

The A2 Milk Company - Kantar Data—Looking for Improvement

Kantar data for The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) 1H25 period is highlighting low-single-digit growth, with Q2 showing a solid sequential improvement in...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 11th): Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac, CSL, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Bluescope Steel, Westpac,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

a2Milk replaces Ryman Healthcare in the NZX10 Index. Ryman has continued to slide following the NZ$1bn equity raise while a2 Milk is a deletion...

Brian Freitas

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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