Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector.</li><li>We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP), dairy production, on-farm costs and farm prices with supplementary information on lending, confidence, emissions, the infant formula market and our global analysis of the dairy industry. </li><li>This edition highlights that times are tough for farmers with volatile prices, subdued Chinese demand, and elevated operating and interest costs are pressuring on-farm profitability.</li></ul>

The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector.We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP), dairy production, on-farm costs and farm prices with supplementary information on lending, confidence, emissions, the infant formula market and our global analysis of the dairy industry. This edition highlights that times are tough for farmers with volatile prices, subdued Chinese demand, and elevated operating and interest costs are pressuring on-farm profitability.

Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest - Edition 2 Cashflow Constraints

<ul>
<li>The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) FY26 result was in line with its July 2026 trading update.</li>
<li>However, first-time guidance for FY27 was below market expectations.</li>
<li>The weaker-than-anticipated outlook reflects a more challenging backdrop for infant formula growth driven by: (1) severe China label market share losses in 4Q26 as a result of limited supply; and (2) some lost momentum for English label following ATM's US product recall.</li>
</ul>


The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) FY26 result was in line with its July 2026 trading update.
However, first-time guidance for FY27 was below market expectations.
The weaker-than-anticipated outlook reflects a more challenging backdrop for infant formula growth driven by: (1) severe China label market share losses in 4Q26 as a result of limited supply; and (2) some lost momentum for English label following ATM's US product recall.


The a2 Milk Company FY26 Result—No Use Crying Over Spilt Share

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

New Zealand

a2 Milk Company Limited produces cow milk which is free of a protein called beta casein A1.  The Company offers its products in Australia and New Zealand.

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A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest - Edition 2 Cashflow Constraints

The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector. We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk...

Forsyth Barr

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest - Edition 2 Cashflow Constraints

The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector. We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk...

Forsyth Barr

The a2 Milk Company FY26 Result—No Use Crying Over Spilt Share

The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) FY26 result was in line with its July 2026 trading update. However, first-time guidance for FY27 was below market...

Forsyth Barr

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research