Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> Tender Offer and TPG's revised Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sing-tao-news-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15701:1" rel="noopener">Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) Tender Offer and TPG's revised Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)/Newmont Mining (NEM US), Penguin International (PBS SP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), and Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: InvoCare, Newcrest/Newmont, Penguin Int'l, Golden Energy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener">ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>, Arcland Service.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  111 Inc (YI US), ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU),Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Penguin International (PBS SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU), Arcland Service.



Merger Arb Mondays (15 May) - SBI Shinsei, Arteria, Toshiba, Yitai, Hailan, Allkem, Lian Beng

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. </li>
<li>Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>. It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. </li>
<li>There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> in the event that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a>’s results collapse further.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. 
Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. 
There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in the event that Kioxia (6600 JP)’s results collapse further.


Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

<ul>
<li>There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem (AKE AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Yitai Coal (3948 HK)</a>'s H-share buyback; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener"> Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>'s tender offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the Allkem (AKE AU)/Livent (LTHM US)'s merger; Yitai Coal (3948 HK)'s H-share buyback;  Networks Corp (4423 JP)'s tender offer. 
Key updates took place forSt Barbara Ltd (SBM AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  </li>
<li>A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".</li>
<li>A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.</li>
</ul>



AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) is one of those periodic (and rare) takeover situations that will likely be remembered for what went wrong rather than what went right.  
A low-balled Offer (proxy advisors agree); perfunctory IFA analysis; a large, and silent, shareholder; and the postponement of the Scheme vote due to voting instructions not being "duly processed".
A new Court Meeting has been confirmed for the 2 June. And now we have some odd CCASS movements which raise further questions.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

Hong Kong

AAG Energy is an international energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of coalbed methane (CBM) in the People's Republic of China. Its primary operating assets are the Panzhuang and Mabi concessions in the Qinshui Basin, Shanxi Province. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

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AAG Energy (2686 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: InvoCare, Newcrest/Newmont, Penguin Int'l, Golden Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (15 May) - SBI Shinsei, Arteria, Toshiba, Yitai, Hailan, Allkem, Lian Beng

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (34.8%), ARTERIA (24.9%), Estia (21.5%), United Malt (13.9%), AAG Energy (8.8%), Hailan (8.7%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Allkem/Livent, Yitai Coal, ARTERIA, St Barbara, AAG Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Curiouser and Curiouser

AAG Energy is cheap. But as one reader pointed out - "I just don't know what's going on". I'd second that. This is an avoid.

David Blennerhassett

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