Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, PBMs were targeted by Congress, NAMS had a CV outcomes preview, and CADL showed prostate cancer benefit.</li><li>LLY partnered GLP-1 access with telehealth Ro and presented oral SERD data in breast cancer, rattling HIMS, LFMD, ARVN, and OLMA. </li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, PBMs were targeted by Congress, NAMS had a CV outcomes preview, and CADL showed prostate cancer benefit.LLY partnered GLP-1 access with telehealth Ro and presented oral SERD data in breast cancer, rattling HIMS, LFMD, ARVN, and OLMA. 

Biopharma Week in Review - December 16, 2024

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, Trump named RFK Jr. to lead the HHS, placing an overhang on XBI and vaccine makers PFE, GSK, MRNA, MRK, and SNY. BNTX and MRK made moves in the PD- 1/VEGF space.</li><li>ABBV’s costly neuro play failed, removing the main threat to BMY’s Cobenfy. AMGN was rattled by bone loss data for its obesity drug. </li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, Trump named RFK Jr. to lead the HHS, placing an overhang on XBI and vaccine makers PFE, GSK, MRNA, MRK, and SNY. BNTX and MRK made moves in the PD- 1/VEGF space.ABBV’s costly neuro play failed, removing the main threat to BMY’s Cobenfy. AMGN was rattled by bone loss data for its obesity drug. 

Biopharma Week in Review - November 18, 2024

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.</li><li>ABBV acquired a private Alzheimer’s biotech, boosting neuro developers PRTA, VIGL, and ALEC.</li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.ABBV acquired a private Alzheimer’s biotech, boosting neuro developers PRTA, VIGL, and ALEC.

Biopharma Week in Review - November 4, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

United States

AbbVie Inc. researches and develops pharmaceutical products. The Company produces pharmaceutical drugs for specialty therapeutic areas such as immunology, chronic kidney disease, Hepatitis C, women's health, oncology, and neuroscience. AbbVie also offers treatments for diseases including Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's disease.

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Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)

Biopharma Week in Review - December 16, 2024

LLY partnered GLP-1 access with telehealth Ro and presented oral SERD data in breast cancer, rattling HIMS, LFMD, ARVN, and OLMA.

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - November 18, 2024

ABBV’s costly neuro play failed, removing the main threat to BMY’s Cobenfy. AMGN was rattled by bone loss data for its obesity drug.

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - November 4, 2024

Last week, NVO had all semaglutide dosages listed available on the FDA drug shortage list, pressuring compounded GLP-1 seller HIMS.

Water Tower Research

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

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