External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ACC: We maintain BUY on ACC, with a lower TP of INR 2,685/share (13x its Sep-24E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>ACC delivered very poor set of numbers in Q3CY22/Q3FY23: profitability misses ours/consensus numbers by a huge margin</li><li>Due to lower realisation and higher costs (input costs spiked by INR 300/MT QoQ), ACC reported almost zero unitary EBITDA (the lowest in past many years)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ACC: We maintain BUY on ACC, with a lower TP of INR 2,685/share (13x its Sep-24E consolidated EBITDA)ACC delivered very poor set of numbers in Q3CY22/Q3FY23: profitability misses ours/consensus numbers by a huge marginDue to lower realisation and higher costs (input costs spiked by INR 300/MT QoQ), ACC reported almost zero unitary EBITDA (the lowest in past many years)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 6%/4%YoY (below expectation). EBITDA/APAT however degrew by 98%/119% respectively YoY due to higher costs during the quarter.</li><li>The company recorded an EBITDA Margin of 0.4% against 19% YoY, which was below expectation as well as consensus estimate, primarily owing to the elevated input costs.</li><li>The volume for the quarter stood at 6.85 million tonnes per annum (mntpa), up 4% YoY. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 6%/4%YoY (below expectation). EBITDA/APAT however degrew by 98%/119% respectively YoY due to higher costs during the quarter.The company recorded an EBITDA Margin of 0.4% against 19% YoY, which was below expectation as well as consensus estimate, primarily owing to the elevated input costs.The volume for the quarter stood at 6.85 million tonnes per annum (mntpa), up 4% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACC Limited - Cost Inflation Drags Margins; Better Synergies to Drive Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There was a lot of confusion around how NSE Indices would handle the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger in its indices.</li>
<li>The market consultation seeks to change the index methodology to bring it in line with other index providers. That will result in much lower turnover than the existing index methodology.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is a high probability add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> possibly in the first quarter of 2023. There will also be changes to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


There was a lot of confusion around how NSE Indices would handle the HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) / HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger in its indices.
The market consultation seeks to change the index methodology to bring it in line with other index providers. That will result in much lower turnover than the existing index methodology.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is a high probability add to the NIFTY Index possibly in the first quarter of 2023. There will also be changes to Nifty Next 50 Index.


NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation

<ul><li>Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year CAGR: 8%) in Q2FY23</li><li>We estimate average utilisation of ~71% vs 78/70% QoQ/YoY. In our view, cement prices fell ~3% QoQ on pan-India basis in Q2</li><li>Prices fell 5-6% QoQ each in north and central regions, 3-4% each in east and west regions and ~1-2% in south</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year CAGR: 8%) in Q2FY23We estimate average utilisation of ~71% vs 78/70% QoQ/YoY. In our view, cement prices fell ~3% QoQ on pan-India basis in Q2Prices fell 5-6% QoQ each in north and central regions, 3-4% each in east and west regions and ~1-2% in southContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Healthy offtake; costs to peak out in Q2

<ul><li>Traditionally Q2 is a soft quarter for cement producers from a demand perspective as it nosedives owing to the monsoon season impacting construction activities.</li><li>In Q2FY23, the cement companies witnessed soft demand in Jul’22 and Aug’22 but saw demand reviving strongly in Sep’22, driven by higher retail as well as institutional demand.</li><li>Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity after the receding monsoon.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Traditionally Q2 is a soft quarter for cement producers from a demand perspective as it nosedives owing to the monsoon season impacting construction activities.In Q2FY23, the cement companies witnessed soft demand in Jul’22 and Aug’22 but saw demand reviving strongly in Sep’22, driven by higher retail as well as institutional demand.Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity after the receding monsoon.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Q2fy23 Preview - Recovery on Cards Despite a Weak Quarter

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

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ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ACC, Oberoi Realty

ACC: We maintain BUY on ACC, with a lower TP of INR 2,685/share (13x its Sep-24E consolidated EBITDA)ACC delivered very poor set of numbers in...

HDFC Securities

ACC Limited - Cost Inflation Drags Margins; Better Synergies to Drive Growth

ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 6%/4%YoY (below expectation). EBITDA/APAT however degrew by 98%/119% respectively YoY due to higher costs...

Axis Direct

NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation

NSE Indices' market consultation on merger/demerger treatment will significantly reduce index turnover. We expect the HDFC/HDFCB merger to complete...

Brian Freitas

Cement (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Healthy offtake; costs to peak out in Q2

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year...

HDFC Securities

Cement Q2fy23 Preview - Recovery on Cards Despite a Weak Quarter

Traditionally Q2 is a soft quarter for cement producers from a demand perspective as it nosedives owing to the monsoon season impacting...

Axis Direct

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