European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

On 17 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a> set the price range for the initial public offering of Acciona Energía.
<ul>
<li>
The price range for the IPO will be €26.73 - € 29.76/share.
</li>
<li>
For an equity value of €8.8 bn - €9.8 bn, and an EV €11.9 bn - €12.9 bn.
</li>
<li>
Acciona told market regulator the CNMC in a filing that it has authorized the placement of a minimum 15% and maximum 25% of the subsidiary's share capital. Greenshoe will represent between 10% and 15% of the initial offer.
</li>
<li>The final price will be set on 29 June, and shares will start trading on 1 July.</li>
</ul>
Acciona Energía has committed c. €8 bn worth of investments to reach 30,000 MW installed in 2030. Q1 net income for Acciona Energía was €121 mn.
With the operation, Acciona will significantly reduce corporate debt after the capitalization of intra-group loans and will prepare the subsidiary to triple its current size.
The IPO range is in the lower band of previous valuation expectations, initially an upper band up to €12 bn was considered.
I believe that this valuation range for Acciona Energía allows for potential upside. My new DCF based TP for Acciona is €159/share (7% down from my previous TP), for an implied 11.5x EV/21e EBITDA.
Recommendation is long ANA SM, TP €159.

On 17 June, Acciona SA (ANA SM) set the price range for the initial public offering of Acciona Energía.


The price range for the IPO will be €26.73 - € 29.76/share.


For an equity value of €8.8 bn - €9.8 bn, and an EV €11.9 bn - €12.9 bn.


Acciona told market regulator the CNMC in a filing that it has authorized the placement of a minimum 15% and maximum 25% of the subsidiary's share capital. Greenshoe will represent between 10% and 15% of the initial offer.

The final price will be set on 29 June, and shares will start trading on 1 July.

Acciona Energía has committed c. €8 bn worth of investments to reach 30,000 MW installed in 2030. Q1 net income for Acciona Energía was €121 mn.
With the operation, Acciona will significantly reduce corporate debt after the capitalization of intra-group loans and will prepare the subsidiary to triple its current size.
The IPO range is in the lower band of previous valuation expectations, initially an upper band up to €12 bn was considered.
I believe that this valuation range for Acciona Energía allows for potential upside. My new DCF based TP for Acciona is €159/share (7% down from my previous TP), for an implied 11.5x EV/21e EBITDA.
Recommendation is long ANA SM, TP €159.

Price Range Set for Acciona Renewables Spin-Off

On 18 February <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a> announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.
<ul>
<li>
The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.
</li>
<li>
Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aena-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21244:1" rel="noopener">Aena SA (AENA SM)</a> in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.
</li>
<li>
The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.
</li>
</ul>
According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:
<ul>
<li>
financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 
</li>
<li>
Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.
</li>
</ul>
I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.
<ul>
<li>
Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a> trades.
</li>
<li>
The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.
</li>
<li>
Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.
</li>
</ul>
Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

On 18 February Acciona SA (ANA SM) announced it would list 25% of its renewables subsidiary, Acciona Energías Renovables, and would retain control.
On 7 June, the Spanish Securities and Markets Commission (CNMV) approved the registration document for the IPO, exclusively aimed at institutional investors.


The IPO consists of a secondary offering by parent company Acciona SA and will serve as a preliminary step for Acciona Energias Renovables' admission to trading on the Spanish Continuous Market.


Press sources point to a value between €10 bn and €12 bn, the largest IPO in the Spanish market since Aena SA (AENA SM) in 2015. Acciona plans to place around 25% of the capital (30% if the green shoe is added), for which it could raise between €2.5 and €3 bn.


The objective is to have the shares listed on the last week of June.


According to Acciona, the rationale of the spin-off is:


financing its ambitious growth plans in renewables: the IPO will allow to accelerate growth goals. The pre-IPO target was to reach 15,000MW in 2024 from 10,700MW in 2020. Now this target is improved to 20,000MW in 2025. Acciona Energías Renovables, as a pure renewables operator, will seek to maximize its growth potential, with an unrestricted balance sheet with access to a more efficient cost of capital. 


Acciona will crystallize the value in the group's fastest growing subsidiary. This subsidiary represents 75% of the group's EBITDA, but Acciona receives little recognition for its renewables business and the high proportion of profits these assets now generate.


I calculate Acciona's fair value by using a DCF (Capital IQ consensus, WACC 5.5%, g 1.5%). I add the value of subsidiaries and apply a 15% holding discount.
Fair value is €172.4/share, 25% upside, although planned growth acceleration for Acciona Energías Renovables, should allow further upward revisions in the parent company target prices.


Acciona's shares trade at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x at which Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) trades.


The valuation of Acciona Energías Renovables includes some €4 bn of financial debt, over 4x EBITDA. Assuming a cautious 20% discount on Orsted, or 13.0x EBITDA, Acciona Energías Renovables would be valued at €12,000 mn euros, 87% of the current market of the entire group.


Assuming Acciona nets €3 bn, half of the IPO proceeds, €1.5 bn, together with another €1.5 bn from the syndicated loan (see background section), will significantly lower the net debt (and the WACC) of Acciona parent, thus triggering a re-rating of the shares.


Recommendation long ANA SM, TP €172.4, with possibility of further upside.

The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euskaltel-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21263:1" rel="noopener">Euskaltel SA (EKT SM)</a> ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of Euskaltel SA (EKT SM) ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drax-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21911:1" rel="noopener">Drax Group PLC (DRX LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enel-americas-sa-c3a67f8a-ad13-45ff-a676-cbc513b8c458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25965:1" rel="noopener">Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortum-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21762:1" rel="noopener">Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erg-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21186:1" rel="noopener">ERG SpA (ERG IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terna-rete-elettrica-nazionale" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21232:1" rel="noopener">Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avista-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17178:1" rel="noopener">Avista Corp (AVA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idacorp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15190:1" rel="noopener">Idacorp Inc (IDA US)</a>.Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verbund-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22563:1" rel="noopener">Verbund AG (VER AV)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edp-renovaveis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21363:1" rel="noopener">EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scatec-solar-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25120:1" rel="noopener">Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innergex-renewable-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25479:1" rel="noopener">Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boralex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25478:1" rel="noopener">Boralex Inc (BLX CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-gamesa-renewable-energy-s-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21270:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM)</a>.Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vestas-wind-systems-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22524:1" rel="noopener">Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaredge-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27981:1" rel="noopener">SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19726:1" rel="noopener">Sunrun Inc (RUN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enphase-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8872:1" rel="noopener">Enphase Energy (ENPH US)</a>.

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Drax Group PLC (DRX LN), Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US), Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH), ERG SpA (ERG IM), Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM), China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK), Nordex SE (NDX1 GR), Acciona SA (ANA SM), Avista Corp (AVA US) and Idacorp Inc (IDA US).Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ), Verbund AG (VER AV), EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL), Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO), Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN), Boralex Inc (BLX CN) and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM).Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC), Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC), SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US), Sunrun Inc (RUN US) and Enphase Energy (ENPH US). 

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

On October 8th, 2019, Acciona (ANA SM) <a href="https://accionacorp.blob.core.windows.net/media/3423388/282372.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">communicated to the market</a> that it had accepted the invitation of Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) to subscribe a private placement of newly-issued Nordex shares: 9,698,244 new shares at EUR 10.21 per share, for a total amount of circa EUR 99 million. This represents a 10% capital increase.
The proposal to Acciona has the full support from both Management and Supervisory Boards of Nordex. With this capital increase, Acciona shall hold 38,695,996 shares of Nordex, therefore Acciona’s stake in Nordex increases from 29.90% to 36.27% post capital increase.
According to the German takeover regulation, a shareholder is deemed to have acquired control if it holds 30 % or more of the voting rights, including shares not held by the bidder but controlled by it. If a bidder gains control (over 30 %) of a listed company it must make a public offer. Within four weeks of the publication of its controlling interest, the shareholder must submit to the Federal Securities Supervisory Office (Bundesaufsichtsamt für den Wertpapierhandel – BAWe) and publish an offer document. The offer must cover all shares of the target, and must be unconditional.
The new percentage of ownership crosses the 30% mandatory takeover threshold under the German takeover law, and therefore Acciona is legally bound to launch a public tender offer at the VWAP of the last three months. Acciona has announced in the German market the submission of a public tender offer to all outstanding shareholders of Nordex for a cash consideration of EUR 10.32 per share. Upon announcement, the shares of Acciona dropped by 5.2%.
The offer represents a:
<ul>
<li>Premium of 1.7% over the closing price of EUR 10.14 per share on October 7th, 2019 (the day prior to the bid).</li>
<li>Premium of -3% over the three months average closing price of Nordex on the three months prior to the announcement, i.e. EUR 10.65 per share.</li>
<li>Valuation of the whole share capital of Nordex at EUR 1.1 billion.</li>
</ul>
Therefore, it appears to be an opportunistic bid that has taken advantage of the recent weakness in the share price of Nordex, in my view.
The average closing share price of the five days period since the bid announcement has been EUR 11.04 per share. The market reaction seems to anticipate a sweetened offer by Acciona to Nordex shareholders.
Putting Nordex on the average 2020E EV/EBITDA of the European industry leaders, Vestas (8.2x) and Siemens Gamesa (7.6x), i.e. a multiple of 7.9x, times the Nordex Capital IQ consensus EBITDA 2020 estimate for Nordex of 214.44 million, and subtracting the proforma net debt of 171.55 million, gives a blue-sky value for the equity of 14.26 per share, a nearly 28% upside versus October 14th, 2019 close, but as it can be seen on the graph, Nordex shares traded on that level last Spring. The median share price target by the 16 analysts that cover Nordex is EUR 12.5 per share (source: Nordex IR, own calculations). My recommendation is to be long Nordex.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/102/027/original/Nordex%20share%20price.jpg?1571132353" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="102027"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Nordex closing share price vs. bid level (red line) Source: Market Intelligence</div>

On October 8th, 2019, Acciona (ANA SM) communicated to the market that it had accepted the invitation of Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) to subscribe a private placement of newly-issued Nordex shares: 9,698,244 new shares at EUR 10.21 per share, for a total amount of circa EUR 99 million. This represents a 10% capital increase.
The proposal to Acciona has the full support from both Management and Supervisory Boards of Nordex. With this capital increase, Acciona shall hold 38,695,996 shares of Nordex, therefore Acciona’s stake in Nordex increases from 29.90% to 36.27% post capital increase.
According to the German takeover regulation, a shareholder is deemed to have acquired control if it holds 30 % or more of the voting rights, including shares not held by the bidder but controlled by it. If a bidder gains control (over 30 %) of a listed company it must make a public offer. Within four weeks of the publication of its controlling interest, the shareholder must submit to the Federal Securities Supervisory Office (Bundesaufsichtsamt für den Wertpapierhandel – BAWe) and publish an offer document. The offer must cover all shares of the target, and must be unconditional.
The new percentage of ownership crosses the 30% mandatory takeover threshold under the German takeover law, and therefore Acciona is legally bound to launch a public tender offer at the VWAP of the last three months. Acciona has announced in the German market the submission of a public tender offer to all outstanding shareholders of Nordex for a cash consideration of EUR 10.32 per share. Upon announcement, the shares of Acciona dropped by 5.2%.
The offer represents a:

Premium of 1.7% over the closing price of EUR 10.14 per share on October 7th, 2019 (the day prior to the bid).
Premium of -3% over the three months average closing price of Nordex on the three months prior to the announcement, i.e. EUR 10.65 per share.
Valuation of the whole share capital of Nordex at EUR 1.1 billion.

Therefore, it appears to be an opportunistic bid that has taken advantage of the recent weakness in the share price of Nordex, in my view.
The average closing share price of the five days period since the bid announcement has been EUR 11.04 per share. The market reaction seems to anticipate a sweetened offer by Acciona to Nordex shareholders.
Putting Nordex on the average 2020E EV/EBITDA of the European industry leaders, Vestas (8.2x) and Siemens Gamesa (7.6x), i.e. a multiple of 7.9x, times the Nordex Capital IQ consensus EBITDA 2020 estimate for Nordex of 214.44 million, and subtracting the proforma net debt of 171.55 million, gives a blue-sky value for the equity of 14.26 per share, a nearly 28% upside versus October 14th, 2019 close, but as it can be seen on the graph, Nordex shares traded on that level last Spring. The median share price target by the 16 analysts that cover Nordex is EUR 12.5 per share (source: Nordex IR, own calculations). My recommendation is to be long Nordex.

Nordex closing share price vs. bid level (red line) Source: Market Intelligence

Spain

Acciona S.A. is a global developer and service provider of solutions in renewable energy, large civil infrastructures and water treatment and reverse osmosis desalination.  The Company has sustainable development at the heart of its strategy.

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Acciona SA (ANA SM)

Price Range Set for Acciona Renewables Spin-Off

Valuation adjustment of Acciona Energía vs initial expectations allows the IPO to go ahead and allows for potential upside. New DCF based TP for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spin-Off of Acciona Renewables

Acciona trades at 10.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, below 16.1x for ORSTED DC. IPO should allow value to crystallize and financial debt to be repaid, thus...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to takeover, such as Repsol SA (REP SM) and Telefonica SA (TEF...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

S&P will implement all proposals of the market consultation at the close on 16 April. This will create trading opportunities. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

Nordex (NDX1 GR): Winds of Change

On October 8th, 2019, Acciona (ANA SM) communicated to the market that it had accepted the invitation of Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) to subscribe a private...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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