European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.</li>
<li>At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.</li>
<li>Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.</li>
</ul>


Acciona SA now owns 90.03% of Acciona Energías Renovables, enabling a squeeze-out and delisting. A likely offer in the €22.60–24.50 range creates a near-term arbitrage opportunity.
At 9.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, ANE trades below peer valuations. A delisting would be strategically accretive for Acciona, unlocking group simplification, full cash flow control, and rerating potential.
Acciona trades at a 7.6% discount to its SOTP. I recommend BUY on both Acciona SA and ANE, with the latter offering 2–10% upside in a low-risk setup.


Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.</li>
<li>
<strong>It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%</strong> from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,</li>
</ul>


Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay.

It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40% from (25,0000 won -29,000 won) to (15,000 won - 18,000 won).
Our base case valuation of Daemyung Energy is target price of 28,784 won per share, which is 60% upside from the high end of the IPO price range,


Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Spain

Acciona S.A. is a global developer and service provider of solutions in renewable energy, large civil infrastructures and water treatment and reverse osmosis desalination.  The Company has sustainable development at the heart of its strategy.

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Acciona SA (ANA SM)

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Acciona SA Nears Full Control: Delisting Play in Acciona Energías Renovables

Acciona can delist its renewables unit after reaching 90% ownership. With ANE undervalued and peers trading higher, a delisting offer offers low...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Daemyung Energy: Lowers IPO Price Range by 40%

Daemyung Energy is trying again for an IPO in Korea, after about three months delay. It has lowered the IPO price range by nearly 40%.

Douglas Kim

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...