Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT Infrastructure and Norges Bank Investment Management have reportedly formed a consortium seeking 100% of ANE, while Ardian remains in the process.</li>
<li>Selected bidders are meeting management and are expected to confirm prices by mid-October. Acciona reportedly aims to reach an agreement by year-end.</li>
<li>At €20.52, ANE trades below our €21 no-transaction case, with 41.3% upside to our €29 fairness case and 55.9% to our €32 strategic case.</li>
</ul>


EQT Infrastructure and Norges Bank Investment Management have reportedly formed a consortium seeking 100% of ANE, while Ardian remains in the process.
Selected bidders are meeting management and are expected to confirm prices by mid-October. Acciona reportedly aims to reach an agreement by year-end.
At €20.52, ANE trades below our €21 no-transaction case, with 41.3% upside to our €29 fairness case and 55.9% to our €32 strategic case.


Acciona Energía: EQT and Norges Enter the Final Stretch

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

<ul>
<li>Acciona's AGM increased confidence in a corporate transaction. Management indicated that all strategic alternatives for ANE would likely require an exclusion offer.</li>
<li>July indications of interest should provide the first market-based valuation, with Citi and Goldman Sachs requesting proposals on both price and stake size.</li>
<li>At €23.12, ANE still trades 15.6% below IPO, 25.4% below our €29 fairness case and 38.4% below our €32 strategic valuation.</li>
</ul>


Acciona's AGM increased confidence in a corporate transaction. Management indicated that all strategic alternatives for ANE would likely require an exclusion offer.
July indications of interest should provide the first market-based valuation, with Citi and Goldman Sachs requesting proposals on both price and stake size.
At €23.12, ANE still trades 15.6% below IPO, 25.4% below our €29 fairness case and 38.4% below our €32 strategic valuation.


Acciona Energía: Strategic Review Gains Momentum

<ul>
<li>Expansion reports July indications of interest for minority, control and full-company transactions, shifting the debate from a potential delisting to a broader valuation discovery process.</li>
<li>Our €29/share fairness case and €32/share strategic value scenario remain intact; at €24.22, the shares still trade materially below both reference points.</li>
<li>Capital allocation may now matter as much as valuation, with Acciona potentially monetising part of its 91.1% stake to support a growing infrastructure investment pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Expansion reports July indications of interest for minority, control and full-company transactions, shifting the debate from a potential delisting to a broader valuation discovery process.
Our €29/share fairness case and €32/share strategic value scenario remain intact; at €24.22, the shares still trade materially below both reference points.
Capital allocation may now matter as much as valuation, with Acciona potentially monetising part of its 91.1% stake to support a growing infrastructure investment pipeline.


Acciona Energía: Renewed Interest, Real Price Discovery

Spain

Acciona S.A. is a global developer and service provider of solutions in renewable energy, large civil infrastructures and water treatment and reverse osmosis desalination.  The Company has sustainable development at the heart of its strategy.

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Acciona SA (ANA SM)

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Acciona Energía: EQT and Norges Enter the Final Stretch

EQT and Norges have joined forces for 100% of Acciona Energía as the sale process moves forward. Management meetings are underway, with confirmed...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Acciona Energía: Strategic Review Gains Momentum

A strategic review has entered a new phase. Management comments, July indications of interest and a shrinking free float suggest the next catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona Energía: Renewed Interest, Real Price Discovery

A strategic review, a shrinking free float and potential July bids are reshaping the Acciona Energía story. We revisit what the business could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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