Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated short interest was USD45.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Unimicron Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, ASE Industrial, Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated short interest was USD45.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Unimicron Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, ASE Industrial, Hon Hai Precision.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 10th): Shin Kong Financial, Unimicron Technology, ASE Industrial

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Taiwan's real GDP grew 3.1% in 2020 (faster than the PRC's 2.3%), and accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, led by a capex surge. The latter should accelerate further as the global semiconductor shortage and surging demand for computers, parts and peripherals induce an investment boom in Taiwan. We recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan. Taiwan's real GDP accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, after growing 3.1% in 2020 -- faster than the People's Republic of China's 2.3% -- including an acceleration to 4.7% YoY growth in 2H 2020. Over the latest 4 quarters, Taiwan has comfortably had the fastest-growing economy among the world's developed economies, with its real GDP expanding 4.5%, the rare economy without a solitary quarter of YoY contraction in 2020. The acceleration in 1Q 2021 was led by a surge in net external demand, bolstered by 8.3% YoY growth in gross investment. The global semiconductor cycle will continue to bolster net-external-demand-led growth through the rest of 2021, with 2Q 2021 likely to see close to 10% YoY growth. For the full year, Taiwan's real GDP will likely grow 7%.Exports expanded 27.3% YoY in March 2021 (and 24.5% YoY in 1Q 2021), led by soaring demand for semiconductors and computers (including parts like PCBs, for all of which Taiwan is a leading global manufacturer), and even stronger growth in smaller export categories like plastics and chemicals. Imports accelerated to 20.9% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, reflecting the strengthening of domestic demand, which broadened the economic recovery. The global electronics cycle will likely spur continued strength in Taiwan's economy through the rest of this year. The semiconductor shortage has played to Taiwan's core strength, and demand for computers &amp; parts (benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>) should also remain strong. The major global winner remains <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> , which has taken a huge lead at the top end of the semiconductor chain (with 84% global market share in 5nm ICs), and is ploughing much of its US$20 billion profits last year (from US$48 billion revenue) into re-investment to widen its lead over its competitors. While any such capex surge in cutting-edge technology is inherently risky/uncertain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> 's market positioning raises the probability of success, implying greater pricing power as its lead over rivals expands further. That Taiwanese corporates have been careful to ensure that the high end of their manufacturing (cutting-edge technology, capital-goods output, research and design) stays in Taiwan (creating an annual bilateral trade surplus of over US$100 billion with the PRC). Although the PRC is the largest destination for Taiwan's exports, the processing in the PRC can be gradually moved elsewhere (Vietnam, Malaysia, India) if it becomes politically/militarily threatened. The capex-led growth of Taiwanese corporates should hugely bolster Taiwan's economy this year, and we recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan.

Taiwan's real GDP grew 3.1% in 2020 (faster than the PRC's 2.3%), and accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, led by a capex surge. The latter should accelerate further as the global semiconductor shortage and surging demand for computers, parts and peripherals induce an investment boom in Taiwan. We recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan. Taiwan's real GDP accelerated to 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, after growing 3.1% in 2020 -- faster than the People's Republic of China's 2.3% -- including an acceleration to 4.7% YoY growth in 2H 2020. Over the latest 4 quarters, Taiwan has comfortably had the fastest-growing economy among the world's developed economies, with its real GDP expanding 4.5%, the rare economy without a solitary quarter of YoY contraction in 2020. The acceleration in 1Q 2021 was led by a surge in net external demand, bolstered by 8.3% YoY growth in gross investment. The global semiconductor cycle will continue to bolster net-external-demand-led growth through the rest of 2021, with 2Q 2021 likely to see close to 10% YoY growth. For the full year, Taiwan's real GDP will likely grow 7%.Exports expanded 27.3% YoY in March 2021 (and 24.5% YoY in 1Q 2021), led by soaring demand for semiconductors and computers (including parts like PCBs, for all of which Taiwan is a leading global manufacturer), and even stronger growth in smaller export categories like plastics and chemicals. Imports accelerated to 20.9% YoY growth in 1Q 2021, reflecting the strengthening of domestic demand, which broadened the economic recovery. The global electronics cycle will likely spur continued strength in Taiwan's economy through the rest of this year. The semiconductor shortage has played to Taiwan's core strength, and demand for computers &amp; parts (benefiting Acer Inc (2353 TT) and Asustek Computer (2357 TT)) should also remain strong. The major global winner remains Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) , which has taken a huge lead at the top end of the semiconductor chain (with 84% global market share in 5nm ICs), and is ploughing much of its US$20 billion profits last year (from US$48 billion revenue) into re-investment to widen its lead over its competitors. While any such capex surge in cutting-edge technology is inherently risky/uncertain, Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) 's market positioning raises the probability of success, implying greater pricing power as its lead over rivals expands further. That Taiwanese corporates have been careful to ensure that the high end of their manufacturing (cutting-edge technology, capital-goods output, research and design) stays in Taiwan (creating an annual bilateral trade surplus of over US$100 billion with the PRC). Although the PRC is the largest destination for Taiwan's exports, the processing in the PRC can be gradually moved elsewhere (Vietnam, Malaysia, India) if it becomes politically/militarily threatened. The capex-led growth of Taiwanese corporates should hugely bolster Taiwan's economy this year, and we recommend staying solidly Overweight Taiwan.   

Taiwan: The Rich World's Growth Star Continues to Shine

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated short interest was USD47.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Compeq Manufacturing, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Novatek Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated short interest was USD47.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Compeq Manufacturing, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, Novatek Microelectronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 3rd): Shin Kong Financial, Compeq Manufacturing, Hon Hai Precision

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, King Yuan Electronics, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Innolux, China Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, King Yuan Electronics, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Innolux, China Steel.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Shin Kong Financial, King Yuan Electronics, Innolux

Taiwan's industrial production has expanded in each of the last 5 months, accelerating in June 2020 to 7.3% YoY growth. This reflects the fact that, despite its deep commercial ties with the PRC, Taiwan has successfully contained the impact of Covid-19. With just 458 cases in total (of which 440 have recovered, 7 died and just 11 currently have Covid), Taiwan's economy has remained open throughout the global crisis, averting the impact of the global recession. Exports were the one sector that couldn't be immune to the global slump. They declined 3% YoY in 2Q 2020, but the trade surplus widened YoY to US$11.8 billion for the quarter. More pertinently, Taiwan's export orders rose 6.5% YoY in June, with ICT orders soaring 17.1% YoY and electronics orders 23.2% YoY. Taiwan is set to reap the benefits of the re-shoring of manufactured-export capacity back to Taiwan from China over the past couple of years, and will likely see a considerable acceleration of economic activity in 2H 2020.  Taiwan's fiscal measures to combat Covid have been focused on re-training, job-support subsidies, and incentives for investments in re-making workplaces for the post-Covid era (with provisions for social distancing and other health/safety measures). Specific economic stimulus measures included support to SMEs, loan and credit-card payment extensions, and reduction in interest rates on residential and consumer loans (by 0.5% and 0.75% respectively). These supportive measures have buoyed domestic demand at a time when the tourist-facing sectors (like in the rest of the world) are seeing a sharp contraction. Real GDP is likely to still have grown over 1.5% YoY in 1H 2020, and will likely accelerate to over 3% YoY growth in 2H 2020, and into 2021. Taiwanese companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foxconn-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11950:1" rel="noopener">Foxconn Technology (2354 TT)</a> are ideally positioned to benefit from the powerful rebound in export demand, as is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yue-yuen-industrial-hldg" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12281:1" rel="noopener">Yue Yuen Industrial Hldg (551 HK)</a> with most of its manufacturing based in Vietnam (the other Asian economy relatively unscathed by Covid). We recommend investors stay solidly Overweight Taiwan.

Taiwan's industrial production has expanded in each of the last 5 months, accelerating in June 2020 to 7.3% YoY growth. This reflects the fact that, despite its deep commercial ties with the PRC, Taiwan has successfully contained the impact of Covid-19. With just 458 cases in total (of which 440 have recovered, 7 died and just 11 currently have Covid), Taiwan's economy has remained open throughout the global crisis, averting the impact of the global recession. Exports were the one sector that couldn't be immune to the global slump. They declined 3% YoY in 2Q 2020, but the trade surplus widened YoY to US$11.8 billion for the quarter. More pertinently, Taiwan's export orders rose 6.5% YoY in June, with ICT orders soaring 17.1% YoY and electronics orders 23.2% YoY. Taiwan is set to reap the benefits of the re-shoring of manufactured-export capacity back to Taiwan from China over the past couple of years, and will likely see a considerable acceleration of economic activity in 2H 2020.  Taiwan's fiscal measures to combat Covid have been focused on re-training, job-support subsidies, and incentives for investments in re-making workplaces for the post-Covid era (with provisions for social distancing and other health/safety measures). Specific economic stimulus measures included support to SMEs, loan and credit-card payment extensions, and reduction in interest rates on residential and consumer loans (by 0.5% and 0.75% respectively). These supportive measures have buoyed domestic demand at a time when the tourist-facing sectors (like in the rest of the world) are seeing a sharp contraction. Real GDP is likely to still have grown over 1.5% YoY in 1H 2020, and will likely accelerate to over 3% YoY growth in 2H 2020, and into 2021. Taiwanese companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Sp Adr (TSM US) , Asustek Computer (2357 TT) , Acer Inc (2353 TT) , Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT), Foxconn Technology (2354 TT) are ideally positioned to benefit from the powerful rebound in export demand, as is Yue Yuen Industrial Hldg (551 HK) with most of its manufacturing based in Vietnam (the other Asian economy relatively unscathed by Covid). We recommend investors stay solidly Overweight Taiwan. 

Taiwan: Recession? What Recession? A Model Democracy Combats Covid

Taiwan

Acer Inc. manufactures and distributes semiconductor products, personal computers, computer peripherals, multimedia products, and computer software. The Company also provides maintenance and repair services to customers.  In addition, Acer Inc. operates real estate business. The Company markets its products under the Acer brand name.

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Acer Inc (2353 TT)

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 10th): Shin Kong Financial, Unimicron Technology, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT), Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan: The Rich World's Growth Star Continues to Shine

Taiwan has been the rich-world's growth star, with real GDP up 4.5% in the last 12 months, including 8.2% YoY growth in 1Q2021. With capex set to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 3rd): Shin Kong Financial, Compeq Manufacturing, Hon Hai Precision

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Compeq Manufacturing, Hon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Shin Kong Financial, King Yuan Electronics, Innolux

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT), King Yuan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan: Recession? What Recession? A Model Democracy Combats Covid

Taiwan's industrial production has expanded in each of the last 5 months, accelerating in June 2020 to 7.3% YoY growth. This reflects the fact...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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