Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. </li>
<li>In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. </li>
<li>Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.</li>
</ul>


Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. 
In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. 
Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.


Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.</li>
<li>Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.</li>
<li>Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.</li>
</ul>


A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.
Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.
Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.


Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Microsoft’s largest-ever acquisition provides boost for cloud gaming and metaverse ambitions.</li>
<li>Deal comes as Activision Blizzard’s been mired in gender pay disparity and sexual harassment storm.</li>
<li>Controversial CEO Bobby Kotick to continue in his role as head of Activision Blizzard, though WSJ says otherwise.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft’s largest-ever acquisition provides boost for cloud gaming and metaverse ambitions.
Deal comes as Activision Blizzard’s been mired in gender pay disparity and sexual harassment storm.
Controversial CEO Bobby Kotick to continue in his role as head of Activision Blizzard, though WSJ says otherwise.


Microsoft Got Game! Plans to Buy Activision Blizzard for $95/Share or $68.7 Billion

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the globe.</li><li>Today, we are looking to analyze 2 global gaming majors on the development side - Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.</li><li>Both these companies have been an active part of the heavy consolidation taking place in the fast-growing industry and are bound to attract investor interest.</li></ul>

The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the globe.Today, we are looking to analyze 2 global gaming majors on the development side - Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard.Both these companies have been an active part of the heavy consolidation taking place in the fast-growing industry and are bound to attract investor interest.

Electronic Arts (EA) vs. Activision Blizzard - Which Gaming Major Is The Better Performer? (11/2021)

<p>In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.</p><p>This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Activision Blizzard, Inc. publishes, develops, and distributes interactive entertainment software and peripheral products. The Company's products cover diverse game categories, including action/adventure, action sports, racing, role playing, simulation, first-person action, music-based gaming and strategy.

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Activision Blizzard (ATVI US)

Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were sceptical in contrast to the majority of commentary on the deal. The more we...

Mio Kato

Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

Electronic Arts (EA) vs. Activision Blizzard - Which Gaming Major Is The Better Performer? (11/2021)

The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the...

Baptista Research

Roblox 3Q21: 30% Move for THESE Results?

Fine quarter for Roblox, but consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively. We would take profits on Roblox and...

Aaron Gabin

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were sceptical in contrast to the majority of commentary on the deal. The more we...

Mio Kato

Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft Got Game! Plans to Buy Activision Blizzard for $95/Share or $68.7 Billion

Microsoft 'ain't' playing games. Its planned buy of Activision Blizzard will get regulators' dander up, but the devil's in the detail, and this...

John DeMasi

Electronic Arts (EA) vs. Activision Blizzard - Which Gaming Major Is The Better Performer? (11/2021)

The gaming industry was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 pandemic which gave rise to a large community of gamers across the...

Baptista Research

Roblox 3Q21: 30% Move for THESE Results?

Fine quarter for Roblox, but consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively. We would take profits on Roblox and...

Aaron Gabin