Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail / Equity Bottom-Up

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

<ul><li>We like the management’s strategy of revamping product strategy through new launches and acquisitions, renewed brand positioning, and digital transformation to increase contribution from online sales (along with next-generation digital-first brands under its technology-led ‘House of D2C Brands’ venture TMRW).</li><li>These would be key growth drivers in the long term. However, all these initiatives will take time to bear fruit.</li><li>Moreover, short-term vagaries such as – 1) slowdown in discretionary spends, 2) Sharp increase in debt, 3) Increase in marketing spends and 4) Investment in TCNS will have a near-term impact on the balance sheet and return ratios.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We like the management’s strategy of revamping product strategy through new launches and acquisitions, renewed brand positioning, and digital transformation to increase contribution from online sales (along with next-generation digital-first brands under its technology-led ‘House of D2C Brands’ venture TMRW).These would be key growth drivers in the long term. However, all these initiatives will take time to bear fruit.Moreover, short-term vagaries such as – 1) slowdown in discretionary spends, 2) Sharp increase in debt, 3) Increase in marketing spends and 4) Investment in TCNS will have a near-term impact on the balance sheet and return ratios.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. - Long Road to Recovery

<ul><li>The company’s revenue grew 26% YoY (16% on a 3-Year CAGR), led by strong LTL growth across businesses and store expansion.</li><li>Its EBITDA de-grew by 48% YoY due to a sharp increase in staff cost and other expenses led by higher strategic investment and higher ad-spends.</li><li>Moreover, the sharp increase in net debt QoQ (Rs 14.2 Bn vs. Rs 3.4 Bn in Dec’22) due to an increase in inventories, investment in subsidiaries (TMRW) and others resulted in an increase in interest cost (up 59% YoY), which further impacted PAT and saw a decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s revenue grew 26% YoY (16% on a 3-Year CAGR), led by strong LTL growth across businesses and store expansion.Its EBITDA de-grew by 48% YoY due to a sharp increase in staff cost and other expenses led by higher strategic investment and higher ad-spends.Moreover, the sharp increase in net debt QoQ (Rs 14.2 Bn vs. Rs 3.4 Bn in Dec’22) due to an increase in inventories, investment in subsidiaries (TMRW) and others resulted in an increase in interest cost (up 59% YoY), which further impacted PAT and saw a decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion Ltd. - Negative Operating Leverage & Rising Debt

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22-30.81% from TCNS’ promoters and 20.19-29% in a conditional open offer for ~INR16.5bn (at INR503/sh) (2) this will be followed by a merger between the two entities via a share swap arrangement (share exchange ratio: 11:6)</li><li>Total deal value is pegged at ~INR29bn (including the share swap)</li><li>ABFRL's share dilution post-acquisition is ~5.7%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22-30.81% from TCNS’ promoters and 20.19-29% in a conditional open offer for ~INR16.5bn (at INR503/sh) (2) this will be followed by a merger between the two entities via a share swap arrangement (share exchange ratio: 11:6)Total deal value is pegged at ~INR29bn (including the share swap)ABFRL's share dilution post-acquisition is ~5.7%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail: ABFRL’s TCNS Acquisition—playing with Fire.

India

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ABFRL) is an Indian fashion retail company offering a diverse portfolio of apparel and non-apparel accessories, including casual wear, formal wear, ethnic wear, and footwear. The company operates prominent brands like Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, and Pantaloons. ABFRL is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 2015.

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Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd. - Long Road to Recovery

We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with the inchanged TP of Rs 200/ share to account for near-term challenges, a slowdown in discretionary spends

Axis Direct

Aditya Birla Fashion Ltd. - Negative Operating Leverage & Rising Debt

The company’s revenue grew 26% YoY (16% on a 3-Year CAGR), led by strong LTL growth across businesses and store expansion.

Axis Direct

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail: ABFRL’s TCNS Acquisition—playing with Fire.

ABFRL announced the acquisition of TCNS Clothing (TCNS) and will acquire a 51% stake in TCNS in a two-part transaction: (1) it will acquire 22...

HDFC Securities

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