External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Adobe reported 4QFY24 results: total revenue grew by 11% YoY to US$5.61bn, in line with consensus estimate (US$5.54bn); non-GAAP net income was up by 9% YoY to US$2.13bn, vs. consensus estimate of US$2.08bn.</li><li>Digital Media net new ARR was up 2% YoY to US$578mn in 4QFY24 (+9% YoY in 3QFY24), which raises investor concern on the deceleration trend and the slow pace of monetization of AI applications.</li><li>That said, the company plans to accelerate the monetization of its AI applications by introducing higher-priced and highervalued AI services offerings in FY25. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Adobe reported 4QFY24 results: total revenue grew by 11% YoY to US$5.61bn, in line with consensus estimate (US$5.54bn); non-GAAP net income was up by 9% YoY to US$2.13bn, vs. consensus estimate of US$2.08bn.Digital Media net new ARR was up 2% YoY to US$578mn in 4QFY24 (+9% YoY in 3QFY24), which raises investor concern on the deceleration trend and the slow pace of monetization of AI applications.That said, the company plans to accelerate the monetization of its AI applications by introducing higher-priced and highervalued AI services offerings in FY25. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Adobe (ADBE US) - AI Adoption on Track, but Slow Pace of Monetization Impacts Sentiment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>ChatGPT has focused the investment community on the potential of AI to drive business performance and investment returns.</li>
<li>Forbes picked Adobe as its top AI pick in 2023. We pick Appier, which is a faster-growing alternative in the digital marketing space.</li>
<li>Appier’s revenue grew by over 50% last year and unlike many SaaS companies, it is profitable.</li>
</ul>


ChatGPT has focused the investment community on the potential of AI to drive business performance and investment returns.
Forbes picked Adobe as its top AI pick in 2023. We pick Appier, which is a faster-growing alternative in the digital marketing space.
Appier’s revenue grew by over 50% last year and unlike many SaaS companies, it is profitable.


Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety. </li><li>Meta’s staggering $600-billion US buildout plan and Anthropic’s $50-billion data center announcements underscore that the compute arms race is accelerating, not cooling.</li><li>Yet caution signals are flashing, as CoreWeave trimmed its full-year guidance despite strong 3Q results, while Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius Group all saw pressure on their stocks. </li></ul>

This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety. Meta’s staggering $600-billion US buildout plan and Anthropic’s $50-billion data center announcements underscore that the compute arms race is accelerating, not cooling.Yet caution signals are flashing, as CoreWeave trimmed its full-year guidance despite strong 3Q results, while Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius Group all saw pressure on their stocks. 

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Figma Inc. is planning to go public in the second half of July. The amount the company intends to raise is not yet disclosed, but it's likely to exceed $1B.</li>
<li>I like Figma’s high growth, rule of 60 story, cash flow generation and solid balance sheet. They are profitable and still growing 40%+ YoY while doing $800M+ in LTM revenue.</li>
<li>I believe Figma’s premium multiple is justified given its best-in-class metrics, top-tier VC investors and Adobe’s attempt to acquire the design software maker for ~$20B in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Figma Inc. is planning to go public in the second half of July. The amount the company intends to raise is not yet disclosed, but it's likely to exceed $1B.
I like Figma’s high growth, rule of 60 story, cash flow generation and solid balance sheet. They are profitable and still growing 40%+ YoY while doing $800M+ in LTM revenue.
I believe Figma’s premium multiple is justified given its best-in-class metrics, top-tier VC investors and Adobe’s attempt to acquire the design software maker for ~$20B in 2022.


Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story

United States

Adobe Systems Incorporated develops, markets, and supports computer software products and technologies.  The Company's products allow users to express and use information across all print and electronic media.  Adobe offers a line of application software products, type products, and content for creating, distributing, and managing information.

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Adobe Systems (ADBE US)

Adobe (ADBE US) - AI Adoption on Track, but Slow Pace of Monetization Impacts Sentiment

We slightly lower our FY25-26E non-GAAP net income forecast by 2%, and trim our target price to US$634.5 based on 32x FY25E non-GAAP PE (previous:...

CMB International

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Appier Group (4180 JP) stock price has more than doubled since we first wrote about the company a year ago. We remain bullish.

Mark Chadwick

Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story

Figma Inc. is expected to IPO in July, likely raising over $1B with strong growth, cash flow generation, and potential premium valuation justified...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Adobe (ADBE US) - AI Adoption on Track, but Slow Pace of Monetization Impacts Sentiment

We slightly lower our FY25-26E non-GAAP net income forecast by 2%, and trim our target price to US$634.5 based on 32x FY25E non-GAAP PE (previous:...

CMB International

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Appier Group (4180 JP) stock price has more than doubled since we first wrote about the company a year ago. We remain bullish.

Mark Chadwick

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI

This month’s AI landscape reveals a market at an inflection point, with record infrastructure commitments colliding with growing bubble anxiety.

Water Tower Research

Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story

​Figma Inc. is expected to IPO in July, likely raising over $1B with strong growth, cash flow generation, and potential premium valuation justified...

Andrei Zakharov

Figma Inc. is expected to IPO in July, likely raising over $1B with strong growth, cash flow generation, and potential premium valuation justified...