Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.</li><li>The technical signals remain in a downtrend, and the index could decline further to 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low), respectively.</li><li>External factors remain slightly negative. Although the Israel-Iran war has not escalated, concerns persist after President Trump called for an evacuation from Tehran. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.The technical signals remain in a downtrend, and the index could decline further to 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low), respectively.External factors remain slightly negative. Although the Israel-Iran war has not escalated, concerns persist after President Trump called for an evacuation from Tehran. 

KTX Zoom: Trump Calls for an Evacuation from Tehran; All Eyes on BoJ Meeting

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,114/1,105 points and the resistance at 1,130/1,135 points.</li><li>The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).</li><li>If the index falls below 1,114 points, it will reflect downside risk toward 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,114/1,105 points and the resistance at 1,130/1,135 points.The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).If the index falls below 1,114 points, it will reflect downside risk toward 1,094 points (the gap opened on April 9) or even 1,056 points (the year’s low).

KTX Zoom: Risk-Off Sentiment Emerging Due to the Middle East War, Weighing on Risk Assets

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.</li>
<li>Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.</li>
</ul>


Headline Asia-ex-Japan EPS estimates have declined over the past 3 and 6 months, dragged down by China, India and Thailand and supported by Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Philippines.
Looking at earnings estimate trajectories of 100 Asian market-sector combinations, we identify 16 market-sectors with upward revisions over past 3 and 6 months. A month ago, we could spot eight.
Korean and Taiwanese Technology and industrials, Hong Kong Technology Services and ASEAN Financials figure prominently among the sectors with robust and sustainable EPS estimate recovery.


Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> made an offer to acquire all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> shares at THB65/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> did not tender their then 21% stake.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH)</a> are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The merger will result in an inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.</li>
</ul>


In 2021, Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) made an offer to acquire all Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) shares at THB65/share. Singtel (ST SP) did not tender their then 21% stake.
Now Gulf Energy Development (GULF) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH) are looking to merge and that will result in VTO's for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).
The merger will result in an inclusion to the SET 50 Index in the first quarter of 2025. There is the December rebalance before that.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

KTX Zoom: Trump Calls for an Evacuation from Tehran; All Eyes on BoJ Meeting

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support levels at 1,105/1,100 points and the resistance at 1,123/1,130 points.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: Risk-Off Sentiment Emerging Due to the Middle East War, Weighing on Risk Assets

The technical signals remain in a downtrend (last week showed potential for a rebound, but the index failed to break above 1,144 points).

Krungthai XSpring

Asian Equities: Below the Headline Numbers, the Earnings Environment Is Improving

A month ago 8 Asian sectors exhibited reviving EPS est; now 16 do. CN, India, Thailand declining, KR, TW, SGP, Phils rising. KR & TW Tech &...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

GULF/INTUCH Merger & ADVANC/THCOM VTO's

GULF and INTUCH are looking to merge with the merger ratio very close to current levels. Shareholders are unlikely to tender into the ADVANC and...

Brian Freitas

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd

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