Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OpenAI agrees to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs based on a multi-year, multi-generation agreement. The deal could be worth upwards of $100 billion to AMD through 2030</li>
<li>AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock, structured to vest as specific milestones are achieved, including AMD share price appreciation to $600</li>
<li>Could a strategic partnership with Intel now also be on the cards? After all, OpenAI needs CPUs as well as GPUs, especially as they ramp into enterprise. Just saying...</li>
</ul>


OpenAI agrees to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs based on a multi-year, multi-generation agreement. The deal could be worth upwards of $100 billion to AMD through 2030
AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock, structured to vest as specific milestones are achieved, including AMD share price appreciation to $600
Could a strategic partnership with Intel now also be on the cards? After all, OpenAI needs CPUs as well as GPUs, especially as they ramp into enterprise. Just saying...


OpenAI, AMD Enter Into Strategic Partnership. Guys, This Is Getting Ridiculous!

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.</li>
<li>With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.</li>
<li>If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and Intel’s surprise alliance may not taper ARM or even TSMC immediately, but it could marginalise AMD far sooner.
With tighter OEM budgets and “AI PC” branding pressure, AMD risks being boxed out of design wins across the client stack.
If Nvidia and Intel drive system-level costs-per-token down, AMD’s chips might find it hard to compete despite being performant.


The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25</li>
<li>AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.</li>
<li>AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.</li>
</ul>


AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25
AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.
AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.


AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

<ul>
<li>AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation</li>
<li>AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore</li>
<li>Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?</li>
</ul>


AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?


AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

<ul>
<li>3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.</li>
<li>2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.</li>
<li>Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.
2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.
Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.


AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

OpenAI, AMD Enter Into Strategic Partnership. Guys, This Is Getting Ridiculous!

Could a strategic partnership with Intel now also be on the cards? After all, OpenAI needs CPUs as well as GPUs, especially as they ramp into...

William Keating

The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?

William Keating

AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OpenAI, AMD Enter Into Strategic Partnership. Guys, This Is Getting Ridiculous!

Could a strategic partnership with Intel now also be on the cards? After all, OpenAI needs CPUs as well as GPUs, especially as they ramp into...

William Keating

The Intel-Nvidia Deal Could Outflank AMD Entirely

​Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

Mint Finance

AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

​AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?

William Keating

AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia and Intel's alliance could marginalise AMD sooner than expected due to tighter OEM budgets and potential cost reductions in system-level...

AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...