Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD raised its 2030 Server CPU Total Addressable Market (TAM) projection from $60 billion to $220 billion, targeting &gt;50% market share as it scales multi-threaded architectures like “Venice”.</li>
<li>Shifting from isolated CPU/GPU/FPGA product roadmaps to a combined Data Center Roadmap Steering Group. Hardware and software trade-offs are now evaluated holistically to deliver full rack-scale system solutions like Helios.</li>
<li>AMD targets a &gt;60% CAGR in Data Center revenue and &gt;80% CAGR in AI Data Center revenue over its strategic timeframe, driving overall company growth above 35% annually.</li>
</ul>


AMD raised its 2030 Server CPU Total Addressable Market (TAM) projection from $60 billion to $220 billion, targeting &gt;50% market share as it scales multi-threaded architectures like “Venice”.
Shifting from isolated CPU/GPU/FPGA product roadmaps to a combined Data Center Roadmap Steering Group. Hardware and software trade-offs are now evaluated holistically to deliver full rack-scale system solutions like Helios.
AMD targets a &gt;60% CAGR in Data Center revenue and &gt;80% CAGR in AI Data Center revenue over its strategic timeframe, driving overall company growth above 35% annually.


AMD @ Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

<ul>
<li>On the CPU side, after a supply constraint, we have been increasing supply. We expect the second‑half CPU business to expand more than 80 % year‑over‑year, </li>
<li>CPU will continue expanding more than 70 % next year though it will still remain supply‑constrained</li>
<li>We just updated our TAM opportunities to more than $220 billion from $25 billion in 2025. That is how significant the expansion has been. </li>
</ul>


On the CPU side, after a supply constraint, we have been increasing supply. We expect the second‑half CPU business to expand more than 80 % year‑over‑year, 
CPU will continue expanding more than 70 % next year though it will still remain supply‑constrained
We just updated our TAM opportunities to more than $220 billion from $25 billion in 2025. That is how significant the expansion has been. 


AMD @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.</li>
<li>He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.</li>
<li>Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).</li>
</ul>


Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.
He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.
Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).


Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD @ Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

AMD targets a >60% CAGR in Data Center revenue and >80% CAGR in AI Data Center revenue over its strategic timeframe, driving overall company growth...

William Keating

DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

AMD @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

We just updated our TAM opportunities to more than $220 billion from $25 billion in 2025. That is how significant the expansion has been. We see...

William Keating

Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &...

Marc Rudajev

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMD @ Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

AMD targets a >60% CAGR in Data Center revenue and >80% CAGR in AI Data Center revenue over its strategic timeframe, driving overall company growth...

William Keating

DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

AMD @ Citi Global TMT Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

We just updated our TAM opportunities to more than $220 billion from $25 billion in 2025. That is how significant the expansion has been. We see...

William Keating

Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &...

Marc Rudajev

We just updated our TAM opportunities to more than $220 billion from $25 billion in 2025. That is how significant the expansion has been. We see...