Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.</li>
<li>Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.</li>
<li>Shares tanked &gt;24% in after hours trading. What's really going on at Intel? </li>
</ul>


Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.
Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.
Shares tanked &gt;24% in after hours trading. What's really going on at Intel? 


Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don't Say We Didn't Warn You...

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.</li>
<li>While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.</li>
<li>I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data center is the new unit of compute.
While this concept seemed straightforward at first, the deeper implications became clearer after Nvidia's presentations at GTC and OFC 2024.
I only recently grasped exactly what is happening, and a simple reframing of the underlying principles that drove Moore’s Law makes the entire picture clearer.


The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

<ul>
<li>Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.</li>
<li>10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.</li>
<li>AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. </li>
</ul>


Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 


The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don't Say We Didn't Warn You...

Q224 revenues $12.8 billion, in line, ~flat QoQ & down 1% YoY. GM of 38.7%, -1.1 points YoY but 4.8 points below forecast. >15% of workforce cut...

William Keating

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

The Data Center is the New Compute Unit: Nvidia's Vision for System-Level Scaling

Copper, Cooling, and Compute Density: The Pillars of Nvidia's Data Center Vision. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized that the data...

Fabricated Knowledge

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI; AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV...

Andrew Lu

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

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