Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible</li>
<li>At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> is trading at a relatively low multiple. </li>
</ul>


Given recent corporate events in S-REIT land, there could be some considerable money to be allocated to the sector near-term

Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK) issued an announcement it would pursue a primary listing on the HKEX. This will make BABA Southbound-eligible
At 0.81x newly-lowered book value, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) is trading at a relatively low multiple. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  </li>
<li>They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. </li>
<li>The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.


Advantest (6857) - Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recent surge in IC test equipment orders is unsustainable. Only service orders maintain a positive trend.</li>
<li>After peaking this fiscal year, sales and profits are likely to show double-digit declines. When earnings might hit bottom is not clear, but cyclical gearing is high. </li>
<li>Earnings could rebound in 2 or 3 years, but visibility is poor. Don't forget that Advantest has dropped into the red three times in the past 20 years. </li>
</ul>


The recent surge in IC test equipment orders is unsustainable. Only service orders maintain a positive trend.
After peaking this fiscal year, sales and profits are likely to show double-digit declines. When earnings might hit bottom is not clear, but cyclical gearing is high. 
Earnings could rebound in 2 or 3 years, but visibility is poor. Don't forget that Advantest has dropped into the red three times in the past 20 years. 


Advantest (6857 JP): Orders Unsustainable, Cyclical Risk High

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>Advantest results were relatively uneventful with a marginal beat at the top line and a marginal miss at the OP level. </li>
<li>Guidance was decent however with both revenue and OP above consensus and some lowballing on margins suggesting some upside to guidance. </li>
<li>The company also said that it would no longer disclose orders because changing lead times made them less comparable because of course they do…</li>
</ul>


Advantest results were relatively uneventful with a marginal beat at the top line and a marginal miss at the OP level. 
Guidance was decent however with both revenue and OP above consensus and some lowballing on margins suggesting some upside to guidance. 
The company also said that it would no longer disclose orders because changing lead times made them less comparable because of course they do…


Advantest – That Time in the Cycle When Orders Apparently Stop Being Important

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Advantest (6857) - Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

Advantest runs a blowout Q1, announces guidance ahead of consensus, revises its MTP to be more bullish, raises divs and announces a buyback. The...

Travis Lundy

Advantest (6857 JP): Orders Unsustainable, Cyclical Risk High

Strong demand and supply chain disruption has led to an unsustainable surge in new orders, sales and profits. Double-digit declines are likely to...

Scott Foster

Advantest – That Time in the Cycle When Orders Apparently Stop Being Important

Advantest results were unsurprising and guidance was on the positive side but the company decided to stop disclosing orders and that means it is...

Mio Kato

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