Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.</li>
<li>A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.</li>
<li>Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.
A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.
Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | reiterates its FY26 as well as mid-term outlook on revenue and EBITDA-margin • Heineken | brewer Haacht’s turnaround takes hold • Basic-Fit | completes acquisition of wellyou • Triodos Bank | improvements in 1H26 reflect first steps in its transformation • Allegro | Allegro Packaging Standard: new seller badge and pack store rollout</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | reiterates its FY26 as well as mid-term outlook on revenue and EBITDA-margin • Heineken | brewer Haacht’s turnaround takes hold • Basic-Fit | completes acquisition of wellyou • Triodos Bank | improvements in 1H26 reflect first steps in its transformation • Allegro | Allegro Packaging Standard: new seller badge and pack store rollout

What's News in Amsterdam - 13 August (Adyen | Heineken | Basic-Fit | Triodos Bank | Allegro)

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.</li>
<li>We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.
We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

Netherlands

Adyen N.V. provides payment solutions. The Company offers a platform that enable merchants and businesses to process payments online, mobile, and point-of-sale systems with payment methods including card schemes, mobile wallets, and other local methods. Adyen serves customers worldwide.

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Adyen BV (ADYEN NA)

What's News in Amsterdam

ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN...

The IDEA!

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 13 August (Adyen | Heineken | Basic-Fit | Triodos Bank | Allegro)

In this edition: • Adyen | reiterates its FY26 as well as mid-term outlook on revenue and EBITDA-margin • Heineken | brewer Haacht’s turnaround...

The IDEA!

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

The two ADDs and two DELs are well-flagged — the real question is whether Societe Generale can squeeze past the sector threshold test, which would...

Afridi Reyal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's News in Amsterdam

ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN...

The IDEA!

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 13 August (Adyen | Heineken | Basic-Fit | Triodos Bank | Allegro)

In this edition: • Adyen | reiterates its FY26 as well as mid-term outlook on revenue and EBITDA-margin • Heineken | brewer Haacht’s turnaround...

The IDEA!

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

The two ADDs and two DELs are well-flagged — the real question is whether Societe Generale can squeeze past the sector threshold test, which would...

Afridi Reyal

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...