Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM transfer • PostNL | faces new competitive threat as Bundle targets business-mail volumes • PostNL | multi-year contract for the delivery of the majority of government mail

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the Netherlands • AkzoNobel/Axalta | EU remedies signal path to Axalta clearance • dsm-firmenich | policy uncertainty increasingly viewed as an investment constraint • Dutch housing market | supply improves; new-build affordability more of a challenge • Dutch household consumption | momentum strengthens, led by durable goods • E-com & Logistics | InPost: AI-driven customer service offers a second wave of efficiency gains</li></ul>

In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the Netherlands • AkzoNobel/Axalta | EU remedies signal path to Axalta clearance • dsm-firmenich | policy uncertainty increasingly viewed as an investment constraint • Dutch housing market | supply improves; new-build affordability more of a challenge • Dutch household consumption | momentum strengthens, led by durable goods • E-com & Logistics | InPost: AI-driven customer service offers a second wave of efficiency gains

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, <em>but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns</em>.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Netherlands

AEGON N.V. offers life and health insurance, and related pension, savings, and investment products in Europe and North America.  The Company also offers property and casualty insurance in the Netherlands, Spain, and Hungary, and financial services including banking, equipment lease financing, and mortgage lending.

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Aegon NV (AGN NA)

Aegon NV - What's News in Amsterdam - 1 October (AkzoNobel | Van Lanschot Kempen | PostNL)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | completes Pakistan exit at 14x EV/EBITDA • Van Lanschot Kempen | expands fiduciary platform through Aegon AM...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Aegon | EGM Clears Path to US Redomiciliation • Ahold Delhaize | still holding the top-2 positions in e-commerce in the...

The IDEA!

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

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