Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28), the WTR AI Index was down 0.6% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).</li><li>Within the WTR AI Flow Index, declines in Software, Internet &amp; Data Services, and Other Industries were not completely offset by gains in Semiconductor and Other Tech.</li><li>Software (22% of the index) was down 12.0%, while Semiconductor (17% of the index) was up 13.9%, Internet and Data Services (7% of the index) was down 12.8%, Other Tech (24% of the index) was up 13.0%, and Other Industries (30% of the index) was down 5.3%.</li></ul></div>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28), the WTR AI Index was down 0.6% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).Within the WTR AI Flow Index, declines in Software, Internet &amp; Data Services, and Other Industries were not completely offset by gains in Semiconductor and Other Tech.Software (22% of the index) was down 12.0%, while Semiconductor (17% of the index) was up 13.9%, Internet and Data Services (7% of the index) was down 12.8%, Other Tech (24% of the index) was up 13.0%, and Other Industries (30% of the index) was down 5.3%.

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 March 2026

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

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<p>Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.</p>
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<p>TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.</p>
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<p>ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!</p>
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Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


<ul><li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-curbs-chip-tools-china-nearly-finalized-posting-2023-10-05/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a> reported on Monday that a new round of export controls just hit the Office of Management and Budget office.</li><li>That means it’s already been finalized by the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, and Energy.</li><li>We are almost at the one-year anniversary of the October 7th export controls that tanked semiconductor stocks last year; this time, the stocks are looking way more sanguine.</li></ul>

Reuters reported on Monday that a new round of export controls just hit the Office of Management and Budget office.That means it’s already been finalized by the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, and Energy.We are almost at the one-year anniversary of the October 7th export controls that tanked semiconductor stocks last year; this time, the stocks are looking way more sanguine.

October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin

United States

Aehr Test Systems develops, manufactires and sells systems whicha re designed to reduce the cost of testing dynamic random access memory and other memory devices.

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Aehr Test Systems (AEHR US)

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 March 2026

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28)...

Water Tower Research

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin

October restrictions redux, Intel's PSG is worth $4-5 a share, and AEHR has a blowup quarter. Reuters reported on Monday that a new round of export...

Fabricated Knowledge

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