AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.</li>
<li>Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.</li>
<li>Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.</li>
</ul>


Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.
Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.
Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.


LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

<ul>
<li>Advantest disclosed its first large high‑volume ATE order for silicon photonics, guiding to at least two more years of doubling growth in this line, while holding operating margins above 44%</li>
<li>FormFactor’s results show record revenue, a 45% YoY jump in Probe Cards, a 30% increase in Foundry &amp; Logic revenue, with NVIDIA crossing the 10% customer threshold.</li>
<li>Moving on, we map how others, i.e. Teradyne, MPI, ficonTEC, Aehr, Keysight, Lumentum, etc fit around this core and which of them keep or gain structural leverage in the stack.</li>
</ul>


Advantest disclosed its first large high‑volume ATE order for silicon photonics, guiding to at least two more years of doubling growth in this line, while holding operating margins above 44%
FormFactor’s results show record revenue, a 45% YoY jump in Probe Cards, a 30% increase in Foundry &amp; Logic revenue, with NVIDIA crossing the 10% customer threshold.
Moving on, we map how others, i.e. Teradyne, MPI, ficonTEC, Aehr, Keysight, Lumentum, etc fit around this core and which of them keep or gain structural leverage in the stack.


[Part 3] What Advantest and FormFactor’s Earnings Say About CPO’s Bottleneck

<ul>
<li>Silicon photonics has been here for decades, but CPO creates a mandatory requirement of automated dual-domain wafer-level testing, a problem the industry is still industrialising </li>
<li>A ten-chiplet CPO assembly where each die yields at 95% produces a package yield of just 60%, making wafer-level screening the only economically viable lever before future packaging is committed.</li>
<li>Wafer-Level burn-in is essential but not sufficient; it screens for reliability, not optical functionality. CPO die must pass both, and the automated infrastructure to do that at scale is missing.  </li>
</ul>


Silicon photonics has been here for decades, but CPO creates a mandatory requirement of automated dual-domain wafer-level testing, a problem the industry is still industrialising 
A ten-chiplet CPO assembly where each die yields at 95% produces a package yield of just 60%, making wafer-level screening the only economically viable lever before future packaging is committed.
Wafer-Level burn-in is essential but not sufficient; it screens for reliability, not optical functionality. CPO die must pass both, and the automated infrastructure to do that at scale is missing.  


[Part 2] Known Good Die and the Test Bottleneck CPO Cannot Seem to Bypass

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

United States

Aehr Test Systems develops, manufactires and sells systems whicha re designed to reduce the cost of testing dynamic random access memory and other memory devices.

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Aehr Test Systems (AEHR US)

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

[Part 3] What Advantest and FormFactor’s Earnings Say About CPO’s Bottleneck

Advantest and FormFactor see strong growth in silicon photonics and probe cards, with potential for continued expansion in the semiconductor...

Mint Finance

[Part 2] Known Good Die and the Test Bottleneck CPO Cannot Seem to Bypass

Silicon photonics faces challenges with automated dual-domain wafer-level testing for CPO, crucial for package yield and optical functionality...

Mint Finance

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

​Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

[Part 3] What Advantest and FormFactor’s Earnings Say About CPO’s Bottleneck

​Advantest and FormFactor see strong growth in silicon photonics and probe cards, with potential for continued expansion in the semiconductor...

Mint Finance

[Part 2] Known Good Die and the Test Bottleneck CPO Cannot Seem to Bypass

​Silicon photonics faces challenges with automated dual-domain wafer-level testing for CPO, crucial for package yield and optical functionality...

Mint Finance

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Advantest and FormFactor see strong growth in silicon photonics and probe cards, with potential for continued expansion in the semiconductor...

Silicon photonics faces challenges with automated dual-domain wafer-level testing for CPO, crucial for package yield and optical functionality...