Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Deep Fundamental Analysis

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

[Part 3] What Advantest and FormFactor’s Earnings Say About CPO’s Bottleneck

Tower Semiconductor: The TSMC of the CPO Trade

Tower Semiconductor Q1 2026. It's All About Silicon Photonics Now!

TSEM: Tower Semiconductor Beats Q1 Estimates and Raises Expectations  It Collected 240M in Customer Prepayments For 2027

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Yunnan Lincang Xnyn Grm Industrl (002428 CH)

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story