Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Deep Fundamental Analysis

[Wafer Watch] Earnings Week Revealed a Split Verdict on AI Economics

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.</li>
<li>TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.</li>
<li>AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.
TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.
AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints