Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a> and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a>'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.</li>
</ul>



Monex (8698 JP) and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.

JMDC (4483 JP) is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

<ul>
<li>I tally 47 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>'s Scheme; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co (8267 JP)</a>'s partial.  Arguably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-plantations-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11418:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)</a>received another offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-plantations-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11418:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 47 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)'s Scheme; and Aeon Co (8267 JP)'s partial.  Arguably, Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)received another offer. 
Key updates took place for: EOFlow (294090 KS), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), JMDC (4483 JP), Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), and T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Newcrest, JMDC, Boustead Plantation, Symbio, Aeon

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> has announced a partial tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inageya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13994:1" rel="noopener">Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP)</a> to make it a consolidated subsidiary. Aeon flagged this intention on 25 April.</li>
<li>The tender offer is for a maximum of 15.7 million shares (33.78% ownership ratio) at JPY1,610, a 23.2% premium to the undisturbed price. There is no minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The offer price is reasonable. Longer-term, Aeon aims to make Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-super-markets-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26107:1" rel="noopener">United Super Markets (3222 JP)</a> by November 2024.</li>
</ul>



Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) has announced a partial tender offer for Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) to make it a consolidated subsidiary. Aeon flagged this intention on 25 April.
The tender offer is for a maximum of 15.7 million shares (33.78% ownership ratio) at JPY1,610, a 23.2% premium to the undisturbed price. There is no minimum acceptance condition. 
The offer price is reasonable. Longer-term, Aeon aims to make Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Super Markets (3222 JP) by November 2024.


Inageya (8182 JP): Aeon’s JPY1,610 Partial Tender Offer

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Newcrest, JMDC, Boustead Plantation, Symbio, Aeon

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Inageya (8182 JP): Aeon’s JPY1,610 Partial Tender Offer

The tender offer is for a maximum of 15.7m shares (33.78% ownership ratio) at JPY1,610, a 23.2% premium to the undisturbed price. There is no...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Newcrest, JMDC, Boustead Plantation, Symbio, Aeon

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Inageya (8182 JP): Aeon’s JPY1,610 Partial Tender Offer

The tender offer is for a maximum of 15.7m shares (33.78% ownership ratio) at JPY1,610, a 23.2% premium to the undisturbed price. There is no...

Arun George

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...