Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OK Super is today the biggest single chain of supermarkets in Tokyo with a strong customer following thanks to its low prices.</li>
<li>It still aims to be the cheapest store in any local area, backed by aggressive buying and low cost operations, and will expand store openings this year.</li>
<li>Although it is a private company, it is a serious competitor to any listed supermarket chain in the Kanto area.</li>
</ul>


OK Super is today the biggest single chain of supermarkets in Tokyo with a strong customer following thanks to its low prices.
It still aims to be the cheapest store in any local area, backed by aggressive buying and low cost operations, and will expand store openings this year.
Although it is a private company, it is a serious competitor to any listed supermarket chain in the Kanto area.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

<ul>
<li>The convenience store sector returned to growth last year but the outlook remains uncertain.</li>
<li>The big 3 chains still have a way to go to adjust to a new era of slower growth and the need for new ideas.</li>
<li>Even with new ideas on merchandising and services, the CVS sector remains saturated and the only real growth is overseas or in other formats.</li>
</ul>


The convenience store sector returned to growth last year but the outlook remains uncertain.
The big 3 chains still have a way to go to adjust to a new era of slower growth and the need for new ideas.
Even with new ideas on merchandising and services, the CVS sector remains saturated and the only real growth is overseas or in other formats.


Top Japanese Convenience Store Chains Rebound in FY2021

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aeon has finally published numbers on its e-commerce growth and performance.</li>
<li>It has a ¥1 trillion target for FY2025 and while this is still a far off target, Aeon is making progress. </li>
<li>Digital sales have doubled in the past two years and Aeon is now well ahead of Seven &amp; I which continues to fail to present a coherent e-commerce plan.</li>
</ul>


Aeon has finally published numbers on its e-commerce growth and performance.
It has a ¥1 trillion target for FY2025 and while this is still a far off target, Aeon is making progress. 
Digital sales have doubled in the past two years and Aeon is now well ahead of Seven &amp; I which continues to fail to present a coherent e-commerce plan.


Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

OK Super: Winning in Inflation Era

OK Corporation runs Japan's most successful discount supermarket operation and is a benchmark to measure its listed competitors. It is likely to...

Michael Causton

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

Top Japanese Convenience Store Chains Rebound in FY2021

Japanese convenience store chains posted higher sales in 2021 after a tough 2020 but the outlook remains uncertain given saturation and new forms...

Michael Causton

Aeon Shows up Seven & I in E-Commerce Growth and Strategy

Aeon is now showing up Seven & I in e-commerce. While both retailers are behind specialty retailers in online share of sales, Aeon is now far ahead...

Michael Causton

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