Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aeon Kyushu will accelerate rollout of its new, small store formats, emulating its parent company’s strategy in Tokyo.</li>
<li>The stores will also challenge local players like Cosmos Pharma and Trial. </li>
<li>A year after opening the first small-format supermarket, it has added an ultra small Maxvalu Express in Fukuoka. </li>
</ul>


Aeon Kyushu will accelerate rollout of its new, small store formats, emulating its parent company’s strategy in Tokyo.
The stores will also challenge local players like Cosmos Pharma and Trial. 
A year after opening the first small-format supermarket, it has added an ultra small Maxvalu Express in Fukuoka. 


Aeon Kyushu: The Future Is Small Format Supermarkets

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16344:1" rel="noopener">Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP)</a> announced a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a> at JPY3,780, a 51.2% premium to the last close of JPY2,500.  </li>
<li>Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.</li>
<li>The offer is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. The required minority acceptance rate to meet the lower limit is achievable. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP) announced a tender offer from Life Corp (8194 JP) at JPY3,780, a 51.2% premium to the last close of JPY2,500.  
Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples.
The offer is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. The required minority acceptance rate to meet the lower limit is achievable. This is a done deal. 


Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The following is an in-depth review of Japanese retail in the last 18 months covering all the main formats and categories, providing a quick way to see an overview of all the key trends and winners and losers in Japanese retailing now and going forward.FY2020 was an anomaly and one that businesses everywhere will want to forget and never repeat. There was more than enough pain among Japan’s top retailers last year, but equally some formats did surprisingly well given the circumstances.For most, work-from-home was the single most important factor in determining a chain’s fortunes. City-centre stores and shopping centres offering mostly discretionary shopping have been hit hard, as have convenience stores.But those chains selling essentials, healthcare, electronics and, most importantly, food, all saw their fortunes improve. The pandemic has also revealed the strong, dynamic players and exposed the weaker ones. Oh, and everyone needs to be online.

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

<ul>
<li>GMS, the one-stop-shop format that does everything but nothing particularly well, has been in decline for two decades but there are still some holdouts. </li>
<li>Izumi remains one of the best but even this southern stalwart sees the writing on the wall and now aims to pivot towards food and M&amp;A, emulating rivals further north.</li>
<li>The shift should help Izumi find new growth through faster rollout of smaller stores as well as shore up its dominance in Kyushu.</li>
</ul>


GMS, the one-stop-shop format that does everything but nothing particularly well, has been in decline for two decades but there are still some holdouts. 
Izumi remains one of the best but even this southern stalwart sees the writing on the wall and now aims to pivot towards food and M&amp;A, emulating rivals further north.
The shift should help Izumi find new growth through faster rollout of smaller stores as well as shore up its dominance in Kyushu.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. </li>
<li>Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.</li>
<li>This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. 
Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and Aeon Delight (9787 JP) will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.
This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.


Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Japan

AEON KYUSHU CO.,LTD., a member of AEON Group, operates a supermarket chain based in Kyushu region.  The Company sells various type of merchandise including clothing, foodstuffs, and household utensils.

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Aeon Kyushu (2653 JP)

Aeon Kyushu: The Future Is Small Format Supermarkets

Aeon Kyushu is expanding its small store formats in Fukuoka to compete with local players like Cosmos Yakuhin and Trial, following its parent...

Michael Causton

Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges...

Arun George

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

Izumi (Also) Focuses on Supermarkets

GMS format declining for two decades, Izumi pivoting towards food and M&A for growth and dominance in Kyushu. The shift should help Izumi find new...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aeon Kyushu: The Future Is Small Format Supermarkets

​Aeon Kyushu is expanding its small store formats in Fukuoka to compete with local players like Cosmos Yakuhin and Trial, following its parent...

Michael Causton

Albis (7475 JP): Life Corp (8194 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY3,780

Despite the lack of an auction and being marginally below book value (P/B of 0.95x), the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges...

Arun George

The Polarising Pandemic in Japanese Retail

A complete review of the Japanese retail sector in the last 18 months, format by format, category by category, providing key trends and winners &...

Michael Causton

Izumi (Also) Focuses on Supermarkets

​GMS format declining for two decades, Izumi pivoting towards food and M&A for growth and dominance in Kyushu. The shift should help Izumi find new...

Michael Causton

Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Aeon has announced a Tender Offer for facilities maintenance subsidiary Aeon Delight. It's an all-time high, but the TOB Premium on Aeon Delight is...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Kyushu is expanding its small store formats in Fukuoka to compete with local players like Cosmos Yakuhin and Trial, following its parent...

GMS format declining for two decades, Izumi pivoting towards food and M&A for growth and dominance in Kyushu. The shift should help Izumi find new...