IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.</li>
<li>The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. </li>
<li>Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.</li>
</ul>



AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.
The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. 
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.


Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> at JPY5,400 per share, a 15.3% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Despite the skinny premium, the offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range and is marginally below the Board's requested price. The required minority acceptance rate is attainable. </li>
</ul>



Aeon Delight (9787 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY5,400 per share, a 15.3% premium to the last close.
Despite the skinny premium, the offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range and is marginally below the Board's requested price. The required minority acceptance rate is attainable. 


Aeon Delight (9787 JP): Aeon’s (8267 JP) JPY5,400 Tender Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 28-Feb-25, the last day of their fiscal year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> signed a deal to acquire Aeon Delight via Tender Offer and Aeon Mall via scrip exchange.</li>
<li>For Aeon Mall, that means negotiation on the share exchange ratio over the next 5-6 weeks. </li>
<li>While I have an opinion on the fair ratio (explained below), I find "Guess The Ratio" trades fraught with bad governance outcomes. The 3-month average is often used.</li>
</ul>


On 28-Feb-25, the last day of their fiscal year, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed a deal to acquire Aeon Delight via Tender Offer and Aeon Mall via scrip exchange.
For Aeon Mall, that means negotiation on the share exchange ratio over the next 5-6 weeks. 
While I have an opinion on the fair ratio (explained below), I find "Guess The Ratio" trades fraught with bad governance outcomes. The 3-month average is often used.


Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

<ul>
<li>Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. </li>
<li>Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.</li>
<li>This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't <em>egregiously</em> wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. 
Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and Aeon Delight (9787 JP) will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.
This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.


Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Japan

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

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AEON Mall (8905 JP)

Aeon Delight (9787 JP): Aeon’s (8267 JP) JPY5,400 Tender Offer

Despite the skinny premium, the offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high.

Arun George

Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

Aeon announced two takeovers Friday. One is a scrip merger which means we get a 5-6 week "Guess The Ratio" trade. They have a bad history. Previous...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. My analysis suggests a potential share...

Arun George

Aeon Delight (9787 JP): Aeon’s (8267 JP) JPY5,400 Tender Offer

Despite the skinny premium, the offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high.

Arun George

Aeon (8267) And Aeon Mall (8905) To Be a Guess The Ratio Trade

Aeon announced two takeovers Friday. One is a scrip merger which means we get a 5-6 week "Guess The Ratio" trade. They have a bad history. Previous...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Aeon has announced a Tender Offer for facilities maintenance subsidiary Aeon Delight. It's an all-time high, but the TOB Premium on Aeon Delight is...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...