Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Credit

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings reported a strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting broad-based momentum across its merchant network, consumer base, funding channels and product ecosystem.</li><li>The company highlighted significant operational progress supported by sustained GMV growth, expanding adoption of its card product and increased usage across both direct merchant integrations and direct-to-consumer channels.</li><li>A key development in the period was the five-year extension of its U.S. partnership with Amazon, which provides longer-term visibility into one of its most meaningful merchant relationships.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings reported a strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting broad-based momentum across its merchant network, consumer base, funding channels and product ecosystem.The company highlighted significant operational progress supported by sustained GMV growth, expanding adoption of its card product and increased usage across both direct merchant integrations and direct-to-consumer channels.A key development in the period was the five-year extension of its U.S. partnership with Amazon, which provides longer-term visibility into one of its most meaningful merchant relationships.

Affirm Holdings Inc.: How Its Credit Innovation Is Unlocking Millions of New Gen Z Users!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.
We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV


Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs collected illegally since Liberation Day last year.  The refunds will go mostly to large corporate importers.</li>
<li>
The tariff policy, which the President is intent on restarting, did not help industrial manufacturing employment or reduce the trade deficit.  Inflation is much higher than when Trump took office.</li>
<li>The BNPL industry is reflecting the strains on the US consumer.  Delinquencies are rising, and the average transaction price is declining as users begin using BNPL for everyday purchases.</li>
</ul>


The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs collected illegally since Liberation Day last year.  The refunds will go mostly to large corporate importers.

The tariff policy, which the President is intent on restarting, did not help industrial manufacturing employment or reduce the trade deficit.  Inflation is much higher than when Trump took office.
The BNPL industry is reflecting the strains on the US consumer.  Delinquencies are rising, and the average transaction price is declining as users begin using BNPL for everyday purchases.


CHARTING COURSE: Tariffs; Here Today, Gone Tomorrow and BNPL Feeding Subprime Consumers

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Affirm Holdings Inc.: How Its Credit Innovation Is Unlocking Millions of New Gen Z Users!

Affirm Holdings reported a strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting broad-based momentum across its merchant network, consumer base,...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. Charts Highlighted: XLF, XLU, HOOD, DAVE, SEZL, AFRM, UPST,...

Vermilion Research

CHARTING COURSE: Tariffs; Here Today, Gone Tomorrow and BNPL Feeding Subprime Consumers

The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs that were illegally collected since Liberation Day last year. The...

David Mudd

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Affirm Holdings Inc.: How Its Credit Innovation Is Unlocking Millions of New Gen Z Users!

Affirm Holdings reported a strong first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting broad-based momentum across its merchant network, consumer base,...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. Charts Highlighted: XLF, XLU, HOOD, DAVE, SEZL, AFRM, UPST,...

Vermilion Research

CHARTING COURSE: Tariffs; Here Today, Gone Tomorrow and BNPL Feeding Subprime Consumers

The US government will begin refunding some of the $166 billion in tariffs that were illegally collected since Liberation Day last year. The...

David Mudd

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...