Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Affirm Holdings, Inc. recently provided an update on its fiscal first-quarter performance for 2025, sharing various insights regarding its current operations and strategic direction.</li><li>Throughout the session led by Founder and CEO Max Levchin, as well as other key executives, the company highlighted strong financial metrics, ongoing initiatives, and future considerations, all of which culminated in both opportunities and challenges for investors assessing its market potentials and risks.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Affirm Holdings, Inc. recently provided an update on its fiscal first-quarter performance for 2025, sharing various insights regarding its current operations and strategic direction.Throughout the session led by Founder and CEO Max Levchin, as well as other key executives, the company highlighted strong financial metrics, ongoing initiatives, and future considerations, all of which culminated in both opportunities and challenges for investors assessing its market potentials and risks.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Dealing With Funding Strategy Vulnerabilities & 4 Other Challenges! - Major Drivers

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place</li>
<li>Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency</li>
<li>Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US</li>
</ul>


Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place
Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency
Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US


Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group had a successful IPO in September, but shares were volatile in October and November along with Affirm Holdings and other BNPL market players.</li>
<li>A Swedish first mover in the BNPL space went public at $40.00 per share, raising ~$169M of net proceeds. Selling shareholders offloaded ~$1.2B worth of Klarna Group shares.  </li>
<li>Klarna Group reported record results in 3Q as a public company, surpassing analyst expectations. However, net loss widened to $95M and provisions for credit losses jumped.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group had a successful IPO in September, but shares were volatile in October and November along with Affirm Holdings and other BNPL market players.
A Swedish first mover in the BNPL space went public at $40.00 per share, raising ~$169M of net proceeds. Selling shareholders offloaded ~$1.2B worth of Klarna Group shares.  
Klarna Group reported record results in 3Q as a public company, surpassing analyst expectations. However, net loss widened to $95M and provisions for credit losses jumped.


Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating</li>
<li>On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi</li>
</ul>


Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed
The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating
On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).</li>
<li>The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. </li>
<li>The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.</li>
</ul>


Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. 
The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Dealing With Funding Strategy Vulnerabilities & 4 Other Challenges! - Major Drivers

Affirm Holdings, Inc. recently provided an update on its fiscal first-quarter performance for 2025, sharing various insights regarding its current...

Baptista Research

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

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Affirm Holdings Inc.: Dealing With Funding Strategy Vulnerabilities & 4 Other Challenges! - Major Drivers

Affirm Holdings, Inc. recently provided an update on its fiscal first-quarter performance for 2025, sharing various insights regarding its current...

Baptista Research

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

​Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

​Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...