EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year </li><li>The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). </li></ul>

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). 

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Aflac Incorporated reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.</li><li>The company presented net earnings per diluted share of $1.11 and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.78.</li><li>This represents a year-over-year decrease of 2.7% when factoring in a $0.04 positive impact from foreign exchange rates.</li></ul>

Aflac Incorporated reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.The company presented net earnings per diluted share of $1.11 and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.78.This represents a year-over-year decrease of 2.7% when factoring in a $0.04 positive impact from foreign exchange rates.

Aflac Inc: Will Its Enhancement of the Regulatory ESR Model Provide A Realistic Picture Regarding Its Operations?

<ul><li>Aflac Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 with mixed outcomes across its Japan and U.S. operations.</li><li>For the quarter, Aflac achieved net earnings per diluted share of $0.05, notably impacted by net investment losses.</li><li>Conversely, its adjusted earnings per diluted share stood at $1.66, remaining consistent with the previous year.</li></ul>

Aflac Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 with mixed outcomes across its Japan and U.S. operations.For the quarter, Aflac achieved net earnings per diluted share of $0.05, notably impacted by net investment losses.Conversely, its adjusted earnings per diluted share stood at $1.66, remaining consistent with the previous year.

Aflac Inc.: Expanding Product Portfolio in Japan to Capitalize On Demographic Shifts!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?</li>
<li>While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.</li>
<li>With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there</li>
</ul>


Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there


Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

United States

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

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Aflac Inc (AFL US)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and...

Kay Van-Petersen

Aflac Inc: Will Its Enhancement of the Regulatory ESR Model Provide A Realistic Picture Regarding Its Operations?

Aflac Incorporated reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern. The company...

Baptista Research

Aflac Inc.: Expanding Product Portfolio in Japan to Capitalize On Demographic Shifts!

Aflac Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 with mixed outcomes across its Japan and U.S. operations. For the...

Baptista Research

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.

Rikki Malik

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Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and...

Kay Van-Petersen

Aflac Inc: Will Its Enhancement of the Regulatory ESR Model Provide A Realistic Picture Regarding Its Operations?

Aflac Incorporated reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern. The company...

Baptista Research

Aflac Inc.: Expanding Product Portfolio in Japan to Capitalize On Demographic Shifts!

Aflac Incorporated reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 with mixed outcomes across its Japan and U.S. operations. For the...

Baptista Research

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

​Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.

Rikki Malik

Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.