Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger; and the Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanei-architecture-planning" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2065:1" rel="noopener">Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesserent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30716:1" rel="noopener">Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals this week: the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger; and the Tender Offers for Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) and T&amp;K Toka (4636 JP).
Key updates took place for Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), DDH1 (DDH AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), and Chindata Group (CD US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

<ul>
<li>There could be two deletes for the index in September. There are two other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of around 2.7% and a one-way trade of A$51m.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-hi-fi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:555:1" rel="noopener">JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU)</a> and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.</li>
</ul>


There could be two deletes for the index in September. There are two other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of around 2.7% and a one-way trade of A$51m.
Short interest has been increasing on Charter Hall (CHC AU) and JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU) and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>The JIP TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a> reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.</li>
</ul>


The JIP TOB for Toshiba (6502 JP) is here. Finally. It's still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) selling Three Exchange Square sounds purely speculative. At best. But it would have a bigly impact on Hong Kong Office sentiment if true. 

Inpex (1605 JP) reported 1H results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it's worth looking at.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25818:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN)</a> scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyoden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7002:1" rel="noopener">Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN) scrip Offer for Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU); and Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP)'s Tender Offer. 
Key updates took place for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), and Eoflow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Invocare, Estia, Metro Pacific, Orecorp, Kyoden

Australia

AGL Energy Limited sells and distributes gas and electricity. The Company retails and wholesales energy and fuel products to customers throughout Australia.

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AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Celltrion, Sanei Architecture, T&K Toka, MPI, Chindata

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes

With a couple of weeks to review cutoff, there are two stocks in deletion zone and another two that are close to the deletion zone. Most likely, no...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hongkong Land, Inpex, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: EOFlow, Invocare, Estia, Metro Pacific, Orecorp, Kyoden

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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