Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold suggests implied EV of US$40.4 billion and market cap of US$42.9 billion.</li>
<li>Our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 14.3x is based on a 50% premium to the comps' valuation multiple in 2026. </li>
<li>We believe a 50% premium valuation to the comps' average EV/EBITDA multiple is appropriate for Zijin Gold mainly due its higher sales growth, EBITDA margins, and ROE than the comps. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Zijin Gold suggests implied EV of US$40.4 billion and market cap of US$42.9 billion.
Our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple of 14.3x is based on a 50% premium to the comps' valuation multiple in 2026. 
We believe a 50% premium valuation to the comps' average EV/EBITDA multiple is appropriate for Zijin Gold mainly due its higher sales growth, EBITDA margins, and ROE than the comps. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. </li>
<li>There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. 
There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. 


Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Agnico Eagle Mines Limited has reported a robust performance for Q2 2025, driven by increased gold prices, strong gold production, and stringent cost management.</li><li>The company has achieved record financial metrics, including free cash flow of $1.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, and adjusted net income per share of $1.94.</li><li>These results reflect the operational efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value.</li></ul>

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited has reported a robust performance for Q2 2025, driven by increased gold prices, strong gold production, and stringent cost management.The company has achieved record financial metrics, including free cash flow of $1.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, and adjusted net income per share of $1.94.These results reflect the operational efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited: Initiation of Coverage

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)

Zijin Gold IPO Valuation Analysis

Zijin Gold announced it is seeking to raise HK$24.98bn through an IPO in HK. The company is offering 349 million shares at HK$71.59 each. IPO will...

Douglas Kim

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold IPO Preview

Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO...

Douglas Kim

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited: Initiation of Coverage

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited has reported a robust performance for Q2 2025, driven by increased gold prices, strong gold production, and stringent...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)