Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Key themes:<ul><li>Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3</li><li>Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14</li><li>Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19</li></ul>

Key themes:Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be four ADDs for the March 2026 rebal event. We predicted two correctly and the other two were surprises.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$2.7bn and a turnover of ~7.2% for March 2026. Most of this is recapping flows of the large caps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be four ADDs for the March 2026 rebal event. We predicted two correctly and the other two were surprises.
We expect a one-way flow of US$2.7bn and a turnover of ~7.2% for March 2026. Most of this is recapping flows of the large caps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal Results: Four ADDs; US$2.7bn One-Way

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Key themes: Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal Results: Four ADDs; US$2.7bn One-Way

The MV Global Gold Miners Index saw 4 ADDs and sees US$2.7bn one-way of flows or about 7.2% turnover. That is as expected, but 2 of the 4 ADDs were...

Travis Lundy

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