Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.</li>
<li>Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.</li>
<li>As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.
Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.
As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>YTD, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.</li>
<li>Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. </li>
<li>If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.</li>
</ul>


YTD, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has gained 4.8%, possibly kick-starting the January effect for 2026.
Over the last 13 years, January has been the only month to register as the best one in a year five times, with an average return of 6.7%. 
If we count all the months of January since 2014, its average return is 1.6%, putting it the third-best-return month after July and November.


China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.</li>
<li>The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.</li>
<li>Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.</li>
</ul>


EM allocations in Global funds have broken out of a multi-year range, reaching the highest level since 2019 as underweights narrow.
The move is led by Taiwan, China &amp; HK, and South Korea, with strong inflows and rising fund participation.
Despite the shift, EM exposure remains shallow and concentrated, making higher allocations a clear point of differentiation.


Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The NFRA eased the solvency risk factors for insurance companies’ stockholdings in the CSI 300 index (from 0.3 to 0.27), the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 index (from 0.3 to 0.27) and the STAR Market (from 0.4 to 0.36) by 10%, on the premises that the insurer’s shareholding periods for the CSI 300 index and the CSI Div.</li><li>Low Vol 100 index by over three years and for the STAR Market by more than two years.</li><li>The Notice issued on 5 Dec (Fri) marks the regulators’ sustained efforts since May to guide insurance funds into the stock market, which we estimate that the easing rule could release RMB102.6bn incremental funds into the CSI 300 market, if total minimum capital release were to be fully invested. By 3Q25, total balance of stock investment amounted to RMB 3,621bn, rising 49% from year-start. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NFRA eased the solvency risk factors for insurance companies’ stockholdings in the CSI 300 index (from 0.3 to 0.27), the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 index (from 0.3 to 0.27) and the STAR Market (from 0.4 to 0.36) by 10%, on the premises that the insurer’s shareholding periods for the CSI 300 index and the CSI Div.Low Vol 100 index by over three years and for the STAR Market by more than two years.The Notice issued on 5 Dec (Fri) marks the regulators’ sustained efforts since May to guide insurance funds into the stock market, which we estimate that the easing rule could release RMB102.6bn incremental funds into the CSI 300 market, if total minimum capital release were to be fully invested. By 3Q25, total balance of stock investment amounted to RMB 3,621bn, rising 49% from year-start. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - Easing Solvency Risk Factors to Steer Insurance Funds into Long-Term Stockholdings

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited is a Hong Kong-based multinational insurance and finance corporation, and the largest publicly traded life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a wide range of products and services including life insurance, accident and health insurance, savings plans, employee benefits, and wealth management. The company was founded in Shanghai in 1919 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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AIA (1299 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd

China Insurance - Easing Solvency Risk Factors to Steer Insurance Funds into Long-Term Stockholdings

The NFRA eased the solvency risk factors for insurance companies’ stockholdings in the CSI 300 index (from 0.3 to 0.27), the CSI Dividend Low...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

China Strategy: January Effect, Believe It or Not?

​The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Breaking the Range: EM Reclaims Attention in Global Portfolios

EM allocations are breaking out in Global portfolios, led by Taiwan and China & HK. Underweights are narrowing, but exposure remains...

Steven Holden

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

We made small changes to the HK Alpha portfolio mid-month. At the close on 12/12 we sold all of First Pacific (142 HK) and added 2% to our...

David Mudd

China Insurance - Easing Solvency Risk Factors to Steer Insurance Funds into Long-Term Stockholdings

The NFRA eased the solvency risk factors for insurance companies’ stockholdings in the CSI 300 index (from 0.3 to 0.27), the CSI Dividend Low...

CMB International

The HSI has gained 4.8% YTD, potentially signalling a January effect for 2026. Over the last 13 years, January has been the best-performing month...