Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

*Improving Profitability: PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and *PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms.

*Improving Profitability: PICC Group (1339.HK) [People’s] reported 1Q21 net profit after tax of CNY 10.0 bn, increasing by a whopping CNY 8.7 bn mn (6.7x) on a linked quarter basis. The linked quarter improvement can be attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s improved CNY 4.4 bn (vs a loss of CNY 1.8 bn in 4Q20) and CNY 3.8 bn (156.3%) - accounting for 61% and 27% of the group's earnings;  and *PICC P&amp;C Posts Big Expense Improvement: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) reported a 1Q21 net profit of CNY 8.9 bn, increasing 156.3% linked quarter. The overall combined ratio declined from 101.3% in 4Q20 to 95.7%. Compositionally, the overall expense ratio decreased 650 bp linked quarter to 25.4%, while the loss ratio increased 90 bp to 70.3%, reflecting a change in auto insurer’s cost structure after implementing pricing reforms. 

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Three major concerns/questions I'd ask regarding the potential IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a>:</li></ul><ol>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener"></a>Single monetization channel: as the company seeks further growth, can it really compete against the distribution channels of the tech and insurance giants in China?</li>
<li>
Insurance/product development potential: does the company have the expertise to develop its own products without just having to rely on the distribution channels?</li>
<li>
Valuation: if the investment thesis is to ride the growth of healthcare and medical insurance spending in China, isn't it more direct to invest in an online (or even traditional) insurer, which is at a much lower valuation?</li>
</ol>

Three major concerns/questions I'd ask regarding the potential IPO of Waterdrop Inc (WDH US):

Single monetization channel: as the company seeks further growth, can it really compete against the distribution channels of the tech and insurance giants in China?

Insurance/product development potential: does the company have the expertise to develop its own products without just having to rely on the distribution channels?

Valuation: if the investment thesis is to ride the growth of healthcare and medical insurance spending in China, isn't it more direct to invest in an online (or even traditional) insurer, which is at a much lower valuation?


Waterdrop Inc: Can the Water Keep Flowing After Its IPO?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Asia Ex-Japan Financials.  Slowly Regaining the Faith.

*Weak Results Showing No Signs Of Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported results for 1Q21, coming in at CNY 27.2 bn which declined CNY 12.9 bn (32.0%) linked quarter. Ping An was pelted on two fronts this quarter: a) investment income declined CNY 55.8 bn (77.9%) linked quarter as the gross investment yield was cut in half to 3.1% - impacted by a CNY 18.2 bn impairment loss related to China Fortune Land (600340.CH); and b) expenses increased CNY 21.5 bn (8.5%), driven by claims which increased CNY 38.8 bn (25.8%); andBank Improvement:  Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], reported reported results of CNY 10.1 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn (55.2%) on a linked quarter basis. By our analysis, we find that credit weakness continues to occur as net new NPLs have increased CNY 4.2 bn or 53.6% on an annualized basis. In fairness, however, this is far better than the CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) increase on an annualized basis. We find that PAB’s reserves still remain light by CNY 19 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio – but sub stantially better than 4Q20.

*Weak Results Showing No Signs Of Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported results for 1Q21, coming in at CNY 27.2 bn which declined CNY 12.9 bn (32.0%) linked quarter. Ping An was pelted on two fronts this quarter: a) investment income declined CNY 55.8 bn (77.9%) linked quarter as the gross investment yield was cut in half to 3.1% - impacted by a CNY 18.2 bn impairment loss related to China Fortune Land (600340.CH); and b) expenses increased CNY 21.5 bn (8.5%), driven by claims which increased CNY 38.8 bn (25.8%); andBank Improvement:  Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], reported reported results of CNY 10.1 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn (55.2%) on a linked quarter basis. By our analysis, we find that credit weakness continues to occur as net new NPLs have increased CNY 4.2 bn or 53.6% on an annualized basis. In fairness, however, this is far better than the CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) increase on an annualized basis. We find that PAB’s reserves still remain light by CNY 19 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio – but sub stantially better than 4Q20.

*AIA Needs To Slow It Down: Until recently AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] operated just five mainland Chinese provincial licenses. With Hong Kong falling down, mainland China has become AIA’s largest market in 2020, contributing 35% to AIA’s VONB. Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary; and  *Risks Of Aggressive Mainland Push: In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong; and potential impairments its USD-based investment portfolio.

*AIA Needs To Slow It Down: Until recently AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] operated just five mainland Chinese provincial licenses. With Hong Kong falling down, mainland China has become AIA’s largest market in 2020, contributing 35% to AIA’s VONB. Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary; and  *Risks Of Aggressive Mainland Push: In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong; and potential impairments its USD-based investment portfolio. 

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

PICC Group – Big Print

PICC GROUP: PICC reported QOQ 1Q21 net profit growth of 6.7x, attributed both to the PICC Life and PICC P&C (2328.HK) whose bottom-line’s each...

Thomas J. Monaco

Waterdrop Inc: Can the Water Keep Flowing After Its IPO?

Waterdrop Inc is an interesting company with good intentions. But these are the three major concerns one should pay particular attention to when...

Alec Tseung

Asia Ex-Japan Financials. Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Active Asia Ex-Japan managers move back in to the Financials sector after a period of heavy rotation, however allocations remain well below...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance – It’s Magic

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An reported a QOQ 1Q21 earnings decline of 32.0% due and investment income decline and an expense increase. Despite the...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Headlong Into China

AIA GROUP: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree, leading to massive managerial distractions. Fundamental...

Thomas J. Monaco

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