Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The book Life Insurance in Asia was written by two McKinsey veterans, and it's really good. It's also really expensive (over Bt2,000 for just 200 pages...Yo, what's that about?) Anyway, we got some of their key points here and try to apply it to the Thai insurance industry:<ul>
<li>As markets mature, bancassurance gradually eats up market share from tied agency, which we earlier called the direct model or agency model.</li>
<li>In the bancassurance model, they observed that much, if not most, of the value was…</li>
</ul>

The book Life Insurance in Asia was written by two McKinsey veterans, and it's really good. It's also really expensive (over Bt2,000 for just 200 pages...Yo, what's that about?) Anyway, we got some of their key points here and try to apply it to the Thai insurance industry:
As markets mature, bancassurance gradually eats up market share from tied agency, which we earlier called the direct model or agency model.
In the bancassurance model, they observed that much, if not most, of the value was…


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth  increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in 4Q17; * AIA’s (1299.HK) APE declined 28% YOY in 1Q18; and* A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. …

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth  increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in 4Q17; * AIA’s (1299.HK) APE declined 28% YOY in 1Q18; and* A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. …

In this review, we move away from day-to-day stock picking and even omit any mentions of prices, so you can focus solely on understanding the industry structure. This primer is only useful if you are unfamiliar with the sector. Most financial services groups in Thailand have a core banking flagship, and the bigger groups will also offer a full line of products (such as asset management, securities, and insurance). While the discussion extends to things like leasing and even support services (admin, law, etc), we will omit clearly non-related businesses such as property and petrochemicals, even if some banking groups, most notably BBL have exposure to them.In a time when we are fairly confident that investing in Thai equities will lead you to only short to medium term losses, we believe these more contemplative groundwork will simply be more constructive, giving you an understanding of the sector, as investors patiently wait for a time to come back to investing here.

In this review, we move away from day-to-day stock picking and even omit any mentions of prices, so you can focus solely on understanding the industry structure. This primer is only useful if you are unfamiliar with the sector. Most financial services groups in Thailand have a core banking flagship, and the bigger groups will also offer a full line of products (such as asset management, securities, and insurance). While the discussion extends to things like leasing and even support services (admin, law, etc), we will omit clearly non-related businesses such as property and petrochemicals, even if some banking groups, most notably BBL have exposure to them.In a time when we are fairly confident that investing in Thai equities will lead you to only short to medium term losses, we believe these more contemplative groundwork will simply be more constructive, giving you an understanding of the sector, as investors patiently wait for a time to come back to investing here.  

Sathorn Series H: A Primer to the Structure of Thai Financial Services Industry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

McKinsey on Asian Insurance

The book Life Insurance in Asia was written by two McKinsey veterans, and it's really good. It's also really expensive (over Bt2,000 for just 200...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

AIA - Slowdown Is Evident

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sathorn Series H: A Primer to the Structure of Thai Financial Services Industry

In this review, we move away from day-to-day stock picking and even omit any mentions of prices, so you can focus solely on understanding the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts...

Stewart Paterson

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