Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a new proposal from BIS that is seeking to change the way banks calculate their operational risk. </li>
<li>The concern they have is the current method is too simplistic and fundamentally flawed. Of course it is; it is simply a percentage based on gross revenue.  
</li>
<li>Operational risk is all about processes, systems and internal controls. While we may not know exactly how any new calculation will look, what is telling is how three China banks compare with three Australian banks.</li>
<li>Is it even in the realm…</li>
</ul>


There is a new proposal from BIS that is seeking to change the way banks calculate their operational risk. 
The concern they have is the current method is too simplistic and fundamentally flawed. Of course it is; it is simply a percentage based on gross revenue.  

Operational risk is all about processes, systems and internal controls. While we may not know exactly how any new calculation will look, what is telling is how three China banks compare with three Australian banks.
Is it even in the realm…


New BIS Proposal on Operational Risk, Comparing China to Australia

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks.  Bill-financing frauds seen at both the Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC, and China Citic Bank, or Citic, indicate high operational risks.Since late 2015, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been strengthening controls by identifying violations, including fraudulent transactions, the use of financing to inflate deposits and loans, and adjustments intended to lower capital charges.  We expect this to negatively affect certain banks with relatively heavy business exposures, including ABC, China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, and Citic.Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks.  Bill-financing frauds seen at both the Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC, and China Citic Bank, or Citic, indicate high operational risks.Since late 2015, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been strengthening controls by identifying violations, including fraudulent transactions, the use of financing to inflate deposits and loans, and adjustments intended to lower capital charges.  We expect this to negatively affect certain banks with relatively heavy business exposures, including ABC, China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, and Citic.Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA 

Tightened Regulations on China's Bill Financing Pose NIM Pressures for Certain Banks

We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.First, the good news--for most banks, we think the losses will be manageable. And now the bad news-- nearly all banks are under-reserved and several could be facing capital shortfalls in a worst-case scenario.Analyst: Erin Davis

We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.First, the good news--for most banks, we think the losses will be manageable. And now the bad news-- nearly all banks are under-reserved and several could be facing capital shortfalls in a worst-case scenario.Analyst: Erin Davis

Banks Look Under-Reserved for Energy Losses

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

New BIS Proposal on Operational Risk, Comparing China to Australia

There is a new proposal from BIS that is seeking to change the way banks calculate their operational risk. The concern they have is the current...

Daniel Tabbush

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

Asian Banks – Risks Remain Plentiful

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking...

Daniel Tabbush

Tightened Regulations on China's Bill Financing Pose NIM Pressures for Certain Banks

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks. Bill-financing frauds seen at both the...

Morningstar, Inc.

Banks Look Under-Reserved for Energy Losses

We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.First, the good...

Morningstar, Inc.

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