Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

For anyone looking at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589">Dah Sing Financial Holdings</a> - and for those of you not looking, you should be - an article out a few hours ago makes clear that the plan described in my piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dah-sing-ka-ching" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2323">Dah Sing Ka Ching?</a> (13 Jan) is on its way. Another piece of news is that Elliott has launched a campaign to shareholders of BEA that could affect the originally recommended hedge.This bodes well for shares of Dah Sing FH, and possibly of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:342">Dah Sing Banking Group</a>. A successful transaction to sell DSFH's insurance unit…

For anyone looking at Dah Sing Financial Holdings - and for those of you not looking, you should be - an article out a few hours ago makes clear that the plan described in my piece Dah Sing Ka Ching? (13 Jan) is on its way. Another piece of news is that Elliott has launched a campaign to shareholders of BEA that could affect the originally recommended hedge.This bodes well for shares of Dah Sing FH, and possibly of Dah Sing Banking Group. A successful transaction to sell DSFH's insurance unit…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

China’s foreign exchange regulator has recently tightened restrictions on purchases of insurance products overseas, as purchases of insurance products using UnionPay cards will be capped at $5,000 per transaction, effective Feb. 4.Given that there’s no limit on the number of transactions per day, the transaction cap alone is likely to have a very limited impact on regular premium products, as the average new premium is estimated at HKD 50,000, slightly above the limit of $5,000 (or HKD 38,750). Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA

China’s foreign exchange regulator has recently tightened restrictions on purchases of insurance products overseas, as purchases of insurance products using UnionPay cards will be capped at $5,000 per transaction, effective Feb. 4.Given that there’s no limit on the number of transactions per day, the transaction cap alone is likely to have a very limited impact on regular premium products, as the average new premium is estimated at HKD 50,000, slightly above the limit of $5,000 (or HKD 38,750). Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA

Transaction Cap by UnionPay Should Have Limited Impact on AIA

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.<div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

Dah Sing - Ka Ching Ka Ching?

For anyone looking at Dah Sing Financial Holdings - and for those of you not looking, you should be - an article out a few hours ago makes clear...

Travis Lundy

Transaction Cap by UnionPay Should Have Limited Impact on AIA

China’s foreign exchange regulator has recently tightened restrictions on purchases of insurance products overseas, as purchases of insurance...

Morningstar, Inc.

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

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